Leave it to Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. With an unpopular Democratic president in the White House and that president's party torn by the difficult decision over whether to back victims of murderous terrorism, the GOP still managed to take a thumping in off-year elections. Stumbling once again over the issues of abortion, former President Donald Trump, and a general gloss of nuttiness, GOP candidates can't get out of their own way.
Across the country, Republicans who saw victory within reach turned in generally underwhelming performances Tuesday. As in last year's mid-term elections, they struggled in the shadow of the U.S. Supreme Court's Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and making abortion a political issue once again. Like a dog finally catching a car, they found themselves burdened by their achievement.
Hung-Up on Abortion, Again
"Republican challenger Daniel Cameron's bet failed to produce gains in rural counties," the Louisville Courier-Journal reported of the Trump-backed candidate's failure to unseat the Democratic incumbent in Kentucky, which gave 62 percent of its vote to the GOP presidential candidate in 2020. "The results also showed the GOP nominee's own political baggage — whether his strict anti-abortion views or his role in the Breonna Taylor case — sunk him in urban centers and suburban areas."
"Youngkin is a relatively popular, middle-of-the-road politician, who probably could have succeeded in flipping the Senate, had it not been for the abortion issue," Olusoji Akomolafe, chairman of Norfolk State University's political science department, told the Richmond Times-Dispatch after GOP Governor Glenn Younkin not only failed in his effort to take the state Senate but also lost the House.
Ohio voters cut to the chase and embedded reproductive rights in the state constitution with a higher percentage of the vote—56 percent—than the 53 percent who cast their votes for Donald Trump in 2020 (they also voted to legalize marijuana, making it a good night for personal freedom).
"A year after an expected 'red wave' turned into a ripple, conservatives' election messaging in 2023 sought to adjust to emerging realities," Rick Klein of ABC News noted in the aftermath. "Election Day 2023 instead continued a losing streak for conservatives on abortion-related issues that began virtually the moment the Supreme Court tossed out Roe v. Wade last year – extending through states that are blue, red and decidedly purple."
Democrats "handed Republicans another drubbing with their twin issue set of abortion rights and fear and loathing of the MAGAGOP," observed The Wall Street Journal's editorial board. "Republicans have a brand perception problem."
Blown Opportunity
This is remarkable given that mid-term and off-year elections are often referenda on the party in power, and President Joe Biden has been wildly unpopular for over two years; the FiveThirtyEight average of polls currently has the president's approval at 38.6 percent and disapproval at 55.7 percent.
Simultaneously, high-profile Democrats publicly battle over whether to back Israel in its fight against Hamas after the terrorist organization's bloody October 7 attack on that country; party progressives favor the Palestinian cause. Polls find growing support in the public at large for the lone majority-Jewish state.
Yet that didn't translate into greater ballot-box support for the GOP.
True, Republicans point to evidence that Trump can beat Biden in a hypothetical rematch in the 2024 presidential election. In a much-publicized The New York Times/Siena poll, "President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most important battleground states one year before the 2024 election."
Hobbled By Trump
But that reflects how weak Biden is rather than any real strength for the likely Republican candidate. The FiveThirtyEight polling average has Trump consistently underwater, with his favorable rating currently at 40.9 percent and his unfavorable at 54.9 percent. It's possible that the former president could beat the current one because almost anybody could.
The Times/Siena poll shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley also besting Joe Biden in swing states, with Nikki Haley winning all six.
A subsequent Marquette poll has Trump narrowly losing to Biden in Wisconsin, which went for Biden in 2020. But both DeSantis and Haley beat the incumbent—DeSantis by two points and Haley by nine.
"Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both deeply — and similarly — unpopular," Shane Goldmacher of The New York Times commented about his paper's polling results. "But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the president."
In fact, polls continuously find deep concerns about the prospects of a Biden-Trump rematch, with overwhelming numbers opposed to the idea. If forced to pick between them, voters may select the less unpopular option. But that's a risky strategy when there's an opportunity to run candidates and messages that don't alienate much of the electorate.
Glimmers of Hope for the GOP
Aside from Cameron's loss in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, the GOP did well in that state, sweeping down-ballot races. The Virginia vote delivered Democrats the narrowest of majorities in the House and a slimmed majority in the Senate. In both cases, better candidates and less-extreme messaging on abortion might well have made a difference for Republicans with a public that overwhelmingly (69 percent according to Gallup) thinks the procedure should be available at least through the first trimester.
Perhaps the vote in Ohio shows the way forward. There, marijuana legalization passed with significant GOP support—much of it from those who count themselves as supporters of the former president.
"To the extent there's a Trump brand, I think it's more of a 'don't trust the government, leave me alone,' than the traditional social conservatives," Doug Berman, executive director of the Drug Enforcement and Policy Center at Ohio State University, told the Cincinnati Enquirer.
That's the kind of message that could play well with a national electorate that doesn't like the incumbent president and is ready for something different, but is put off by the more control-freakish aspects of the GOP. If Republicans can embrace their "leave me alone" mojo and leave the unpopular former president in the past, they just might improve their odds of defeating the even less-popular current White House resident and his party.
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