Even though snow blanketed Iowa’s roads and temperatures fell into the single digits Saturday afternoon, Dennis and Monica Hinkle made the 20-minute drive from their home in Tiffin outside Iowa City to see Nikki Haley speak at a packed downtown theater.
Iowa officials advised staying off the road, but driving in was no big deal. “It’s Iowa,” Dennis Hinkle said, a testament to the conviction that many voters in the state have as they continue the tradition of being the first in the country to hold a primary election.
After a blizzard on Friday forced campaigns to cancel in-person events, Haley and Ron DeSantis resumed campaigning on Saturday, making their closing arguments to voters. Trump held a virtual rally Saturday evening after canceling three out of four scheduled rallies in the final hours before the caucuses.
A final poll by the renowned Iowa pollster Ann Selzer released on Saturday evening showed Trump with the support of 48% of likely caucusgoers, followed by Haley at 20%, DeSantis at 16%, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%. If those numbers hold, it would give Trump a record margin of victory in the caucuses, shattering Bob Dole’s 13-point win in 1988.
“Our grassroots supporters have put us in position to win, and now we have to show up to caucus for president Trump on Monday and get the job done,” Trump said in response to the poll. “We have to show up.”
‘I’m not a lover of chaos’
In Iowa City, the audience of a small theatre was filled with Iowans who had decided to caucus for Haley, as well as supporters who had flown in from other states to help in the final days of the caucus. There seemed to be about as many reporters as attenders.
“We just like her ideas, we like her style, her positions seem to be well thought-out. Just like the way she approaches things. I’m not a lover of chaos. And I think we’re living with it every day,” said Hinkle, 71, who worked in economic development, as he filled out a small postcard committing to caucus for Haley on Monday.
Moving through a 20-minute stump speech at a steady clip, Haley talked about strengthening enforcement at the US-Mexico border (“When it comes to the border, it truly is a dereliction of duty”), improving mental health for veterans (“we can’t just love ‘em when they’re gone, we’ve got to love ‘em when they’re home too) and cutting taxes (“we know the rich are getting richer and the poor and getting poorer. We need to let the middle class free”). She did not mention abortion at all. The crowd was silent for an extended portion of her speech when she offered a full-throated defence of supporting Ukraine and Israel. The question of continuing financial aid to Ukraine has become a sore spot among many hard-right Republicans.
Haley leaned into the idea that she was best positioned to beat Joe Biden in November. A Wall Street Journal poll from last month showed she would beat Biden by 17 points in a hypothetical matchup. Trump held a four-point lead while DeSantis was tied.
America cannot afford another “nail-biter election,” nor the risk of Kamala Harris becoming president, she said, a line that earned applause. She also suggested her relative strength compared to Biden would lead to more Republican wins lower down on the ticket.
“You can look at any of the polls, any of the general election polls that show head-to-head with Biden. Ron doesn’t beat Biden. Trump against Biden, they’re head-to-head on a good day,” she said. “I defeat Biden by double digits, by 17 points. That’s more than the presidency. That’s the House. That’s the Senate. That’s governorships. That’s all the way down to the school board.”
That argument resonated with Jim Baker, a 61-year-old lawyer from San Diego who took off from work on Wednesday and flew in to help the campaign during the finals of the caucus. “She can beat Joe Biden,” he said. “She’s not Donald Trump.”
Marionette Miller-Meeks, the area’s Republican congresswoman, was supposed to introduce Haley. But Miller-Meeks was rear-ended by a semi truck on her way there. Miller-Meeks’ office later put out a statement that the congresswoman was uninjured.
On Monday, when Republicans caucus at 7pm, temperatures are forecast to be as low as -20F (-29C) with a projected high of -4F (-20C). It is predicted to be the coldest temperature ever for an Iowa caucus.
‘They can throw a blizzard at us, and we are going to fight’
In West Des Moines, DeSantis showed up more than an hour late to an event at the headquarters of Never Back Down, a Super Pac supporting him, after an earlier rally in Council Bluffs. The room was also filled to capacity with supporters and political journalists.
The Florida governor was introduced by three of his biggest endorsers: Texas congressman Chip Roy, evangelical activist Bob Vander Plaats and Iowa governor Kim Reynolds.
“It’s a little cold out there. But are we not Iowans? Are we not resilient?” Reynolds said. “So what we need to do is be safe of course, layer up, and we need to get to the caucus. And if we get to the caucus, I can tell you without hesitation – with the energy, the motivation, just what we’re seeing as we travel the state – this guy is going to be the winner of the Iowa caucus on Monday night.”
DeSantis also used the weather to energise his supporters.
“They can throw a blizzard at us, and we are going to fight. They can throw wind chill at us, and we are going to fight,” he said. “It’s going to be cold. It’s not going to be pleasant. But if you’re willing to go out there and you’re willing to fight for me, if you’re willing to bring people to the caucus, if you’re willing to brave the elements and be there for the couple hours that you have to be there, if you’re willing to do that and you’re willing to fight for me on Monday night, then as president I’ll be fighting for you for the next eight years every single day.”
Vander Plaats told reporters after the event that until this year, he thought Ted Cruz, the winner of the 2016 Iowa caucuses, had the best ground game in Iowa he had seen. DeSantis’ organisation was “light-years ahead,” of that effort.
Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur, also had events scheduled in the state on Saturday, but drew a last-minute attack from Trump. Even though Ramaswamy has strongly backed Trump, the former president said he was “not Maga”. “A vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side’ – don’t get duped by this,” Trump said in a Saturday post on Truth Social.
Asa Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor who has outlasted many better-known rivals in the race, held a town hall in Des Moines Saturday at a co-working space that was attended by about 75 people. He was asked about rebuilding public trust in government, gun violence and concerns over democracy surviving.
“There are still undecided voters out there in Iowa today … I’m playing to win because if you’re not playing to win, you drop out,” Hutchinson said.
“I’ve worked very hard during this campaign to keep expectations low. I’ve been very successful,” he said to laughs. “So here in Iowa, I have an opportunity to exceed expectations.”
