The growing relocation of federal public servants outside the ACT is becoming "a disaster" for Canberra's property market, leading real estate agents say.
The proportion of Australian Public Service staff based in the capital dropped to a decade-low of 35.4 per cent in 2024-25, as remote work becomes increasingly popular.
Archer real estate managing director Andrew Early said his agency had noticed a decrease in the number of people moving to Canberra over the past two years, while an increasing number moved interstate.
He estimated the ACT had lost thousands of people to remote work, pulling millions of dollars of expenditure out of real estate, hospitality and other local service industries.
"It's a massive problem and it's going to come out more and more how much of a disaster it is for the ACT," Mr Early said.
Mr Early said his agency had maintained its rental portfolio, but most agencies he knew had lost 10 to 15 per cent of their business in the past year.
"I had a mate of mine, he lives in the Central Coast and he's going for a job in the public service now, high level, and they told him last week, 'Oh, no, you don't have to move to Canberra'," he said.
"So he's going to stay at the beach, work in the public service, and not move to Canberra, whereas two years ago, he would have had to move to Canberra, he would have bought a property or he would have rented a three-bedroom apartment, and he would have contributed that money into Canberra."
The proportion of APS staff based in Canberra dropped from 38.2 per cent in June 2015 to 35.4 per cent in June 2025, while state capitals such as Melbourne had their share of staff grow from 13.8 per cent to 15.2 per cent in the same period.
Brisbane also experienced growth in its share of APS staff, increasing from 7.4 per cent of the workforce to 9.8 per cent.
The Australian Public Service Commission noted the total number of staff located in Canberra had increased every year since 2018.
"As at 31 December 2025... the total number of federal public servants working in Canberra was at its highest ever recorded level of 69,938," a spokesperson said.
However, more recent data provided by the commission shows the number of APS staff working interstate has still grown at a faster rate than the number of staff in the ACT.
The number of interstate APS workers grew from 93,029 to 126,449 between December 2017 and December 2025, an increase of 36 per cent, while Canberra's workforce increased from 56,870 to 69,398 during the same period, an increase of 22 per cent.
Blackshaw Manuka auctioneer Mario Sanfrancesco said a significant proportion of the properties he sold in the past few years were for people who were moving interstate while maintaining their APS jobs.
Many were working couples in the mid-to-late part of their careers, with or without children, he said.
"If [people are] able to maintain their role, their position, and move interstate somewhere where they feel the lifestyle is better for them, like the Gold Coast or Brisbane... then they're doing that," Mr Sanfrancesco said.
"The overall impact is, I think there's fewer people moving in to buy than there are selling up to move.
"Canberra's always been reasonably transient, so it's not uncommon... [but] APS being able to work interstate... that's not great for the Canberra market."
Canberra recorded a slight easing of the residential rental market in May 2026, with the vacancy rising to 1.6 per cent, up from 1.4 per cent in April, according to SQM Research.
Maloneys Property principal Peter Maloney said several of his clients had moved to the Gold Coast to work remotely for the APS in Canberra-based jobs, taking "the zoosh" out of the buying market.
"The vacancy rate's still at a reasonable level, but there's not the tension that it was," he said.
"Normally in January, February you get a tsunami of people who have been transferred into Canberra... for four years we haven't had that."
