Is it too soon? Is it even doable? Few expected that, 10 years after the Brexit referendum and barely six years after its exit from the European Union, the UK would be talking about rejoining.
Over the weekend, the former health secretary and posible Labour leadership contender Wes Streeting claimed Keir Starmer’s government needed “a new special relationship with the EU” and that one day the best answer was to be “back in the EU”.
Here are the options Streeting might have if he were PM.
The moonshot: full-fat membership of the EU
This would be challenging. While a referendum is not legally required, it would be desirable politically.
Many believe a referendum would have to show support of more than 60%, possibly closer to 70%, to cement a return. The EU would be unlikely to countenance accession talks without gold-plated security the UK wouldn’t wobble back in another 10 years.
Remember, the political energy expended on accession is huge – and many member states may prefer to spend it on Ukraine and Moldova, which are critical to the EU’s security on the eastern flank.
A recent survey by Best for Britain showed more than 80% of those planning to vote Labour, Liberal Democrat or Green supported a full return to the EU, but only 53% of voters as a whole felt the same.
Even if the UK could deliver a huge majority in favour of return to the EU, technical-level talks would inevitably be intense and full of potential bear traps, starting with the unstitching of the withdrawal agreement, which covered Northern Ireland, citizens’ rights and the divorce bill.
The Swiss-style halfway house
Switzerland is not a member of the EU but it struck a deal last year cementing its “frictionless access” to the single market, access to the EU’s electricity market, space programmes, Erasmus and the Digital Europe research programme, and participation in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.
In exchange, Switzerland agreed to free movement of people and to pay €375m (£326m) a year into the EU’s economic and cohesion funds.
The EU offered the UK a Swiss-style deal but it was rejected by Boris Johnson because it required regulatory alignment and free movement.
The Norway-style halfway house
The UK could rejoin the single market through membership of the European Economic Area, also previously rejected by Starmer.
Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland – which is toying with the idea of joining the EU after Donald Trump’s threats to Greenland – are all part of the EEA.
To become a member of the EEA, the UK would first have to negotiate membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). It would also have to accept free movement.
4. Status quo: ready, steady, reset
This would involve continuing Keir Starmer’s bit-by-bit alignment with the EU.
The limit of ambition of the reset was seen as politically expedient two years ago, and the UK remains nervous about how a likely deal will play out publicly, especially as it has cast a youth mobility scheme as immigration and insisted on capping numbers under 50,000 a year.
Critics say the deal will have little discernible impact on the economy or the damage Labour says has been caused by Brexit.
5. New ideas?
The Swiss deal shows how Brussels tires of spending political and executive energy on constantly having to maintain and update agreements with a third country – but it also shows it can be open to imaginative and flexible ideas.
