Scotland entertain Australia on Saturday in search of a fourth consecutive win over the ailing tourists, who are clinging on to their place in the world’s top 10.
It is worth pausing to consider that opening sentence for a while. On a run of three wins over the Wallabies they may be, but this is the first time Scotland play Australia as the higher-ranked team since World Rugby introduced its ranking system nearly 20 years ago.
Australia have fallen to ninth, their lowest ranking to date, after their rollercoaster of a Rugby Championship campaign, thrashing teams and being thrashed in almost equal measure. Scotland in the process have risen to sixth, despite their losing tour to Argentina in the summer.
And so the reorientation of rugby’s power base continues. One could hardly describe South Africa, the world champions, as weak, nor New Zealand, perennial standard-bearers of all things oval, but, relatively speaking, the southern-hemisphere nations are as weak as they ever have been against the north, who account for five of the top seven.
The scene is set for a compelling November in Europe, during which we might discern whether the sort of fresh winds that see Ireland and France in first and second place respectively are fickle or prevailing. But, first, this opening encounter at Murrayfield offers an intriguing taster.
The bookies, cold automatons that they are, seem less excited. At time of writing they still marginally favour Australia, giving Scotland a two-point head start on the handicap, but such assessments will be factoring in the October date of the clash. This falls outside the international window, so Scotland are not able to call on any players employed outside of the country, which means most of their best.
Scotland: Ollie Smith, Darcy Graham, Mark Bennett, Sione Tuipulotu, Duhan van der Merwe, Blair Kinghorn, Ali Price; Pierre Schoeman, Dave Cherry, Zander Fagerson, Sam Skinner, Grant Gilchrist, Jamie Ritchie (capt), Hamish Watson, Matt Fagerson. Replacements George Turner, Jamie Bhatti, WP Nel, Glen Young, Jack Dempsey, George Horne, Ross Thompson, Damien Hoyland.
Australia: Tom Banks, Andrew Kellaway, Len Ikitau, Hunter Paisami, Tom Wright, Bernard Foley, Tate McDermott; James Slipper (captain), David Porecki, Allan Alaalatoa, Nick Frost, Cadeyrn Neville, Jed Holloway, Michael Hooper, Rob Valetini. Replacements: Folau Fainga’a, Matt Gibbon, Taniela Tupou, Ned Hanigan, Pete Samu, Nic White, Noah Lolesio, Jock Campbell.
Regardless of that, though, Gregor Townsend’s headline selection is an omission. Finn Russell, the talismanic fly-half who plies his trade in Paris with Racing 92, will not be called upon at all this autumn, international window open or shut. That really does feel like a change in dynamic. The relationship between Townsend and Russell has been strained for a while, two genius playmakers seemingly out of sync, but this raises questions about the very soul of the Scotland team a year away from the next World Cup.
That other genius to have defined Scotland for so long, Stuart Hogg, has been relieved of the captaincy. He is one of 11 exiles unavailable for this Test, but the captaincy has been handed to Jamie Ritchie for the duration of the autumn. Hogg and Russell are the epitome of Scotland in recent years, fluctuating between the brilliant and the unreliable.
In Ritchie, Townsend has chosen a flinty character, in keeping with longer-standing Scottish tradition. The search for the perfect blend of these qualities goes on. Perhaps Scotland will strike upon it in the shape of Adam Hastings, a playmaker who could not be more imbued with Scottish rugby pedigree given the status of his father, Gavin, and uncle, Scott.
Hastings is helping to move Gloucester on to a new level, so he is not available this weekend either. Blair Kinghorn steps in at fly-half, while on the bench Jack Dempsey waits to become one of the first players to benefit from rugby’s loosened restrictions on international representation. The back-row forward has played 14 times for Australia but has made the switch, courtesy of his Scottish mother.
Australia themselves are hardly at full strength, but they do welcome back something of their own soul in Michael Hooper. The Wallabies’ erstwhile captain and keeper of the flame left the squad suddenly at the start of the Rugby Championship, citing the strain on his mental health of his 12 years as a professional player, his 121 caps, 64 of them as captain.
He earns a recall this weekend and will assume his customary No 7 shirt, but the captaincy remains for now with James Slipper, the loosehead prop. Another veteran and bellwether, Bernard Foley, is picked at fly-half after his own rollercoaster in the last two rounds of the Rugby Championship, notably his perceived reluctance to kick a late penalty into touch with seconds remaining on the clock in the round-five match against the All Blacks. The referee, Mathieu Raynal, awarded a controversial scrum to New Zealand, from which they scored to deny Australia a much-coveted win.
How they needed it. These are dark days for the Wallabies indeed. Dave Rennie’s win rate has fallen below 38%, the lowest of any Australia coach, but their record against Scotland is as poignant a reflection of the shifting winds as any. From 1982 to 2009, Australia were unbeaten against them, racking up 16 consecutive wins. Since 2009, they have won three of eight.
It still feels strange to think of Australia as scrapping for pre-eminence with Scotland; it feels strange to think of the south doing so with the north, full stop. This autumn amounts to a final limber-up between the two before next year’s World Cup in France.
