49ers quarterback Trey Lance is still a massive question mark heading into his third NFL season. All indications are he’s a distant QB2 behind last year’s Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, on San Francisco’s depth chart. It remains to be seen whether Lance improves and becomes the top-flight QB the 49ers were hoping to get when they moved up to No. 3 in the draft to get him. Regardless of the outcome though, the team’s decision to take a swing was the right one.
A slew of factors play into a QB’s success in the NFL, and none of the signal callers available when the 49ers picked third overall have proven one way or another whether they can succeed long-term in the NFL.
What we can evaluate now is the process, and San Francisco’s was good. With the dust settling on the last two seasons, we know the full scope of the deal.
The 49ers dealt the No. 29 pick in 2022 and the No. 28 pick in 2023 to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 in the 2021 draft. They also included a 2022 compensatory third-round choice.
Given where they were in the 2021 offseason with Jimmy Garoppolo coming off another injury-filled year that caused the 49ers to miss the playoffs, San Francisco had to make a move for a QB. They could’ve stood pat and waited for a player to fall to them at No. 12, but they identified a player they thought could develop into an elite QB.
Not every pick is going to hit, but the position is important enough that a big investment to try and locate a franchise quarterback is sometimes necessary. It’s a risk, but it’s a risk that aims to clear the purgatory of having a QB who caps the offense’s ceiling.
Since the move up for Lance, the 49ers have gone to the NFC championship game twice. The 2023 draft will be the final one where they don’t hold a first-round pick from the big trade up. This was a team built to withstand a miss with this kind of move.
Lance could still pan out. He’s immensely talented, the 49ers’ roster is loaded, and they have arguably the best offensive coach in the league. Even if the pick doesn’t work out though, the 49ers’ move up in the draft was the right one.
