Reform UK is celebrating “an extraordinary sense of momentum” north of the border, as Scotland’s top polling expert predicts the populist right party could end up deciding the next Holyrood government.
The deputy leader, Richard Tice, said his party’s mood was “bullish and optimistic” as it held its first Scottish conference in Perth on Saturday.
Reform took 7% of the vote in Scotland at July’s general election, overtaking the Conservatives in 25 seats, despite virtually no campaigning or party infrastructure north of the border.
Last month, in a flurry of council byelections in Aberdeenshire and Glasgow, Reform gained between 12% and 25% of first preferences, while recent polling has put the party beyond 10%, which, according to Holyrood’s proportional voting system, could translate into up to 12 MSPs at the next Scottish parliament elections.
According to Prof Sir John Curtice, Britain’s most trusted elections guru, Reform’s momentum is “fundamental” to the next Holyrood election, whether that takes place in 2026 as planned or sooner. There has been speculation this may happen if the SNP minority government struggles to pass an unpopular cuts budget.
“Reform are running around 10% in the regional list [under Scotland’s PR system, voters choose both a constituency MSP and a party from a regional list], so they are set for at least eight, possibly 12, MSPs if there were to be an early election,” said Curtice. This could result in them overtaking both the Scottish Greens and Lib Dems.
“If you look at the numbers for the other parties, Reform getting into Holyrood would make it impossible to form either a government that was backed solely by pro-independence parties [SNP and Scottish Greens] or a government that was backed solely by [other unionist parties] Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives.”
Tice acknowledged this prospect “puts us in very interesting position”.
With the party now putting more resources into infrastructure in Scotland and Wales, with the aim of 30 branches north of the border by the end of the year, Reform is “not taking anything for granted, but we’re making good progress”, he said. “We are going to have much more representation in Scotland than anybody expected just six months ago. We could well be the third biggest party in Holyrood.”
Scottish Conservatives play down the threat – although Reform’s initial breakthrough was described as “deeply concerning” by the new leader, Russell Findlay – and point to their four byelection wins in Aberdeenshire, despite the defections of two popular local councillors and Reform securing 25% of first preferences in Fraserburgh, known to be one of the most pro-Brexit areas of the country.
The task for Findlay, who styles himself as a straight talker unencumbered by the party machine, is to reconnect with those switchers or stay-at-homes ahead of 2026.
But privately, MSPs across the political spectrum accept that the rise of Reform in Scotland presents a challenge for every party and could significantly change the tone of Holyrood dealings.
In Glasgow, Tice says Reform took votes from “socially conservative Labour supporters” in November’s council byelections, and Curtice points out that the support it has picked up since the general election “is much more diverse – a bit from the Tories, a bit from Labour, the disillusioned, dissatisfied voter. The one party they’re not picking up much from is the SNP.”
Local reports suggest the majority of Reform organising is still happening online, but graduating to more in-person events and the establishment of local branches, in particular in Aberdeenshire.
Andy Maciver, a former Tory adviser and a co-host of the Holyrood Sources podcast, says Reform still need to tailor Scotland-specific messages: he predicts they can pick up votes on the regional list “simply by saying things other parties won’t”, for example on net zero. Tice says Reform’s pledge to scrap net zero has its “most immediate impact” on the north-east of Scotland, hub of the oil and gas industry, where anxiety about transition is rife.
Nigel Farage did not come to Scotland during the election campaign, claiming it was “too dangerous”, but Maciver cautions that “even anti-devolution, arch-unionist Scots are not attracted to the Englishness, as opposed to the Britishness, that Farage represents”.
“There are people who are ready for the Reform message, but they need the right messenger to deliver it, who can handle the negative response that will go with it.”
