Afternoon summary
Campaigner have for the closure of the RAF Wethersfield asylum centre after a high court ruling saying the Home Office acted unlawfully when three asylum seekers who had been victims of torture, violence or trafficking were held there. (See 4.10pm.)
Updated
DWP accused by expert of making false claims about rise in claims for top rate of universal credit for sick/disabled
Yesterday the Department for Work and Pensions put out press notice about the large rise in the number of claiming the top rate of universal credit for people with sickness or a disability. I covered it on the blog here and here is the full press release is here. It included the claim:
The number [of people in this category] has almost quadrupled since the start of the pandemic when 360,000 people were considered too sick to look for work – a 383% rise in less than five years. In the last year alone, the number has risen by from 1.4 million people to 1.8 million.
Iain Porter, a senior policy adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation thinktank, calims this is highly misleading. He has explained why in a thread on social media.
Yesterday, a Government press release claimed the number of people “considered too sick to work” had “quadrupled” since the pandemic (a “383% rise”). This is incorrect. In fact, it’s not even close. It’s more like 40%. This thread explains why
The press release ignores that Universal Credit was still early in rollout pre-pandemic, so starts from a very low number. It ignores equivalent group in the legacy ESA benefit that UC is replacing. You can’t compare UC LCWRA over time without including the equivalent ESA. 2/7
As a recent DWP statistical analysis shows, the actual rise between 2019 and 2023 in total LCWRA and equivalent group is around 40%. 3/7 pic.twitter.com/boiXa1SlTK
— Iain Porter (@IainKPorter) March 14, 2025
This same DWP statistical analysis also shows that the unexplained rise over this period is actually nearer 30% after accounting for rise in State Pension Age, demographic changes and structural differences between UC and ESA: 4/7
Here's some other things they’ve got wrong. They suggest people on LCWRA are somehow not allowed to get job help if they want it. In fact, DWP has monumentally failed to offer job support to this group - they should do this, not cut their income. As @jrf_uk @scope showed. 5/7 pic.twitter.com/UjpHvOYhqn
— Iain Porter (@IainKPorter) March 14, 2025
Disabled people are really worried about how these proposed changes will affect them. We know half of people receiving these benefits are unable to afford enough food, to heat home, or pay bills. That’s why it’s so important Govt sticks to the facts and avoids misleading. 6/7
We will have to wait to see the Green Paper to see what exactly happens. But what we know for certain now is that people should take what they’re reading with a pinch of salt. 7/7