At the beginning of every NFL season, we like to think we have a good grasp on the needs of each team, and how they will look at the following year.
But like clockwork, we’re consistently surprised at how things turn out to be entirely different than our initial perspective once the games actually start happening.
Quarterback situations can be particularly volatile, with expectations changing rapidly in-season. Let’s take a look at how some QB situations are looking now after a few weeks of the NFL season; which teams still look like they have a huge need there, and which ones surprisingly might not:
Carolina Panthers
As has become habit with the Matt Rhule-led Panthers, they took a big swing on a former first-round pick who had crashed and burned at his previous location. After Teddy Bridgewater, and Sam Darnold, they landed on Baker Mayfield.
To say Mayfield has not worked out could be considered an understatement, given his level of play. He’s among the league’s worst in passer rating at 75.0, which puts him just above the recently benched Mitch Trubisky. It’s doubtful that what’s been shown will change much, and he’s more likely to sink than swim in the pressure of an uninspired offense.
Darnold and Matt Corral are also on the roster. In Darnold’s case, he has shown he is clearly not an NFL starter, and with Corral, there’s simply not enough information available to be confident in his ability to become the future of the franchise. Carolina will likely select a new signal-caller in the 2023 NFL draft, and may be the first team to do so, given their downward spiral.
Seattle Seahawks
It seemed almost certain that the Seahawks were in for a disaster when they set up a Geno Smith vs. Drew Lock quarterback competition in the beginning of training camp, with most analysts eagerly assigning them a quarterback at the top of next year’s draft.
Smith has entirely flipped that narrative. He’s currently sitting with a 108.0 quarterback rating, good for third among eligible passers, as well as a league-high completion percentage of 77. He’s made the Seahawks one of the most dominant offenses in the NFL, and has shown the grit to complete comebacks.
If Smith continues his stellar play, he should be in line for a massive contract extension, and will push the Seahawks out of contention for a quarterback in the draft. He’s only 31 years old, so there’s still plenty of gas left in the tank.
Chicago Bears
However you slice it, there’s no way to undersell how bad the Bears’ passing attack has been so far this year. They currently rank dead last with 472 total passing yards, nearly 200 yards behind the nearest challenger.
While the Bears ultimately feel compelled to run the ball, one has to question if that’s because of the abilities of Justin Fields, who has not played at a high level at all. The team seems hesitant to put the ball in his hands and let him lead, which is a large red flag for a quarterback that was thought to be the future of the position.
When he has been given the opportunity to pass the ball, Fields has been one of the worst in the league with a passer rating of 58.7, and more turnovers than touchdown. The whole passing attack looks barren at the moment, and that certainly leads to questions about the quarterback.
Granted, the Bears are a clearly rebuilding team, but if they don’t have a quarterback who can elevate the talent around him and might ultimately be a liability, Chicago may need to press the reset button in the offseason.
Detroit Lions
Going into the offseason, Jared Goff was a bit of an afterthought in regards to the Lions’ future plans, as some analysts had the Lions selecting quarterback at No. 2 overall, or finding one later in this year’s draft. Head coach Dan Campbell gave a clear sign of confidence in Goff during the draft, and that confidence has paid off in a big way.
Goff has shown clear signs of growth as a passer and a leader in the new-look Lions offense under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and quarterback coach Mark Brunell. He has an impressive 99.9 quarterback rating, and 11 touchdown passes to just three interceptions, leading the Lions to the being the best offense in the NFL.
Should these signs of growth continue, and his play stays consistent, Goff will be locked in as the franchise quarterback for the Lions for the foreseeable future, and they can safely avoid a quarterback in the upcoming draft.
Houston Texans
There was speculation in the offseason about what Lovie Smith and the Texans were going to do at the quarterback position, given the promising but brief showing of then-rookie Davis Mills. They ultimately chose to address other positions in free agency and the draft, putting faith in Mills to develop.
That faith has yet to be rewarded, as Mills has clearly struggled thus far, leading the Texans to a winless season (with one tie). While they have been competitive in most of their games, it’s difficult to say that Mills is a large reason why, as he has shown streaky and often erratic play at the position. While the talent clearly shows up on tape with flashes of brilliance, it’s usually followed up with a terrible decision or an inaccurate throw to an open receiver.
Going into this offseason, a lot will depend on how Mills has progressed throughout the rest of the year. The tools are still there, and he’s on one of the most talent-barren teams in the NFL. If he can show signs of clear development, the Texans should stick with him, but if a new regime is pushed in, they may take their draft ammunition and put their stock into a quarterback from the 2023 draft class.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were under the impression that they had struck gold after the Deshaun Watson situation, as a franchise quarterback had left their division, and simultaneously caused a fallout between Matt Ryan and the Falcons that landed the veteran in their lap for a third-round pick. It’s looking like it may have been fool’s gold after all.
Ryan was supposed to be an upgrade over Carson Wentz’s roller coaster 2021 season, but that hasn’t been the case so far. The Colts’ new field general has looked either borderline awful, or just above mediocre in all his games. He has corrected course a bit as of late, helping the Colts win over the Chiefs and be competitive against the Titans, but it’s hard to look past the fact Ryan has not been able to carry this team past mediocrity. He’s thrown just as many touchdowns as interceptions, and when his top pass-catchers have been injured, he looked abysmal instead of elevating the players around him.
There are some serious questions the Colts must get answers to throughout the rest of the season, and Ryan’s play will directly impact how they’ll address the position in 2023. Will he continue to play like Philip Rivers did for them, or will he bring that franchise-QB edge the Colts thought they were getting when they pulled the trigger to get him during the offseason?
Washington Commanders
There was a general chuckle heard around the NFL world when the quarterback-desperate Commanders traded decent draft capitol to acquire the much-maligned Carson Wentz from the Colts, who appeared to be on the edge of cutting him. Ron Rivera and company assumed they were getting an upgrade, and it turns out they were probably wrong.
Things started out pretty great for Wentz, who was bombs away to the many weapons on the Commanders offense, dropping 7 touchdowns to 3 picks in his first two games. The clock struck midnight in his last two games, though, where Wentz has free-fallen back to earth with an abysmal 0-2 stretch against two solid defenses, bringing him back to reality with a quarterback rating of just over 60.0 over those games.
There are some things that Wentz does well, but there are obviously some inconsistencies that come with him being your quarterback, and he’s made it quite obvious he is not the future of the position for the team. The Commanders will have to hope they finish low enough to find themselves their first franchise quarterback since the RGIII injury.
New York Giants
The Giants are 3-1.
Yes, those Giants, with that quarterback.
The New York team was written off before the season as a disaster of a team with no hope at the quarterback position, but the narrative has shifted with the addition of head coach Brian Daboll, who has brought his Buffalo offense with him on the short flight.
While Daniel Jones has not blown the roof off of stadiums with his play, he has show signs of progression, as opposed to the regression we saw last year, proving he is a versatile dual threat with the ability to make clutch plays with his arm or his legs. While the fact he has not thrown more than 200 yards this season is an obvious concern, he has played well enough to put the Giants in a position for a playoff push in the weak NFC.
Where the Giants go at the position in the offseason will entirely depend on if Jones can elevate his play even further, and become more of a asset than a liability. If he can continue his progression and lead the Giants to the playoffs, there will be little doubt he will receive an extension.
New Orleans Saints
When the Saints traded for an extra first-round pick in this year’s draft, many wondered if they were targeting a new quarterback. Ultimately, that was not their plan, as they saw an opportunity to take advantage of a relatively weak NFC with last year’s starter (before he was injured, anyway), Jameis Winston.
Things haven’t quite worked out, with Winston posting two touchdowns to five interceptions, and an 0-2 record as a starter. While it’s fair to point out that he’s been dealing with an injury, it does leave the Saints in a similar position as last year, where they cannot be sure what a healthy Winston brings them.
If Jameis continues to turn the ball over at such a high rate, or can’t stay healthy, the Saints will not be able to rely on either quarterback on the roster, and the season will end with them looking for a replacement in the offseason. Whether that comes in the draft or in free agency remains to be seen, as the Saints, despite their deficiency at that particular position, will likely be too good to pick high enough for a quarterback in the upcoming draft.
