BOSTON — Rejoice, relief and rejuvenation will surely be felt on Jersey Street and across New England this week, as the Red Sox have finally, for the first time since Dustin Pedroia in 2013, retained a homegrown superstar on a long-term contract.
Wednesday afternoon, the Red Sox agreed to an 11-year, $331 million deal to keep Rafael Devers in Boston through his age 36 season, a contract first reported by former MLB player Carlos Baerga and later confirmed by multiple outlets.
Given the Sox already signed Devers to a one-year, $17.5 million deal for 2023, this deal looks more like a 10-year, $313.5 million contract.
Still, it’s a megadeal that checks in as the 10th-largest contract in MLB history and will make Devers one of the 20 highest-paid players ever, according to annual average salary.
Given occasional concerns about Devers’ physical shape, some recent shoulder and hamstring injuries and the fact that he’s one of the seven heaviest third baseman in MLB history, it’s fair to wonder how productive he’ll be in the final few years of the deal. But after the Red Sox whiffed on signing Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts to long-term contract extensions, there was a pervasive feeling they’d lose the fan base if they failed to lock up Devers, too.
A contract for Devers was perhaps the only move that would regain the fan base’s trust and satisfaction after a lackluster offseason that saw the Red Sox let Bogaerts sign with the San Diego Padres, watched Nathan Eovaldi sign with the Texas Rangers and missed on all of the top 20 free agents.
They did add Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida, designated hitter Justin Turner, starting pitcher Corey Kluber and relief pitchers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez, but without any star power and the loss of some star players, there remains an inevitable sense that the last-place Red Sox will be even worse in 2023.
At least now they have a plan to compete in 2024 and beyond.
Devers is unquestionably one of the most talented hitters in baseball. Since his breakout season in 2019, his .884 OPS ranks ninth among all qualified hitters and is sandwiched between Betts and Pete Alonso.
But Devers’ size and physical health will be of great importance as he approaches his 30s.
Listed at 240 pounds last year, Devers checked in as one of the heaviest third baseman of all time. The others on the list: Miguel Cabrera, Scott Rolen, Pedro Alvarez, Jim Thome, Austin Riley and former Red Sox third baseman Pablo Sandoval.
Only Rolen was able to stay at third base for the duration of his career and remain productive through the length of his contract, making him a prime candidate to reach the Hall of Fame. He checked in at 63% of the vote in 2022, his fifth year on the ballot, a sign that he’s likely to make it into Cooperstown in the coming years.
Of the other players on the list, Riley is still in his prime with the Braves while Cabrera was moved to first base at 31 and had his final season as an All-Star player at 33. Alvarez stopped playing baseball at 31, Thome was mostly a first baseman and designated hitter, and then there’s Sandoval, who stopped being productive in his late 20s.
While the Red Sox might regret paying Devers $31 million a year into his mid-30s, this is the way modern baseball contracts work. Surely, the Padres don’t think Bogaerts will remain effective at 41 years old, but the $280 million over 12 years will be spread out enough to both defer some of the money and allow the Padres to show a lower AAV of Bogaerts’ salary, giving them a better chance at remaining under the luxury tax threshold.
Even if Devers has his final above-average year at 33, as did Cabrera, it’ll be as if the Sox paid Devers about $45 million a year over seven of his best years, which, if Devers remains an elite player in those seven years, should actually be a fair contract.
Anything else after that is gravy for the Red Sox, who had no other option but sign Devers or risk losing the fan base entirely.
It was starting to look grim, too.
The Betts trade has looked worse by the day, with the Sox recently cutting ties with Jeter Downs, the top prospect sent back by the Dodgers, and Alex Verdugo looking more like an average big leaguer than an All-Star. Betts’ $365 million deal over 12 years with the Dodgers remains preferable to either of the contracts signed by Bogaerts or Devers, but the Red Sox refused to admit they messed up by trading Betts or by letting Bogaerts walk into free agency.
Instead, they doubled down on their decision-making as recently as last month, when team president Sam Kennedy said of Bogaerts, “We’ve not done an 11-year contract… we were not willing to go to that territory.”
Asked if the Sox would change course after botching the Bogaerts situation, Kennedy said of having any regrets or fears, “I don’t engage in either of those two activities.”
All signs pointed to Devers hitting free agency at the end of 2023, when he’d join Shohei Ohtani as the two most valuable free agents and would have surely found a deal closer to $400 million if he had another great season.
By signing now, Devers guaranteed himself a healthy chunk of change while also giving the Red Sox a bit of a bargain compared to what they would’ve likely paid to keep him in free agency.
It’s a deal that looks good for both sides right now, even if it might not later, even if the Sox overpaid to keep a star player after failing to do that with every one of their best players since Pedroia and David Ortiz.
