If Sergio Perez indeed gets pushed out by Red Bull - or decides to jump himself, which seems the more unlikely scenario - after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, all signs point to Liam Lawson as the name that will be prioritised in the conversation between Christian Horner, Helmut Marko and the company’s shareholders on Monday after the race.
And Lawson is a solid driver. The word in the paddock is that Red Bull bosses value his ability to perform under pressure, something he's proven successfully both times he was thrust into an F1 race seat mid-season.
Lawson comes across as someone who wouldn't overthink nor overexert himself under any circumstance, which does sound like a great quality if you're picking a driver to share a garage with Max Verstappen. Lawson is self-assured, level-headed, maybe even - in a good way - uncomplicated, or at least that's what you hear from the Red Bull camp.
"Honestly, I go about a race how I have always done, and it is not something I am not trying to do a certain thing or act in a certain way to show them anything," the New Zealander said, when quizzed on that subject on Thursday in Abu Dhabi.
"I am just trying to do the best job I can in the car so mentally it is always how I’ve been - and it is up to them to decide whether they like that or don’t like that.
"I’ve been in this junior team a long time and this is the end of my sixth year in Red Bull, and that pressure comes from the second you arrive. I was 16 years old and I never felt pressure like that and I never knew that it could be like that going into a racing season.
"I think that is one of the benefits of being with Red Bull for so long is that, in a way, it builds you for Formula 1. Having that experience of that pressure on you from a really young age, it would be tough, so I am grateful to have had that for so many years."
And yet, none of that changes the fact Sunday will mark Lawson's 11th full start in F1. His CV otherwise includes runner-up in the DTM, runner-up in Super Formula (like Pierre Gasly) and third place in his second year in Formula 2.
That's... decent. But, frankly, not better than decent.
Not that Tsunoda's junior career was a stunning one either, but you can argue it was a bit more impressive if you consider that his third place in F2 came not in his second year in the series like for Lawson - but in his second year on the European racing scene, full stop. All-new tracks, completely different culture.
Then there's the fact Tsunoda is finishing up his fourth year in F1 with Red Bull's junior team, and that he's outscored and outqualified his last three team-mates, including race winner Daniel Ricciardo.
But in the F1 paddock, it is widely perceived that it's the guy with 10 races under his belt who's the favourite to get the nod from Red Bull - rather than the guy who has been the faster of the two in most of the qualifying sessions and races they've done as team-mates.
If you’re Tsunoda, it must be really puzzling and frustrating.
And puzzled and frustrated is exactly what he seems to be - at least when facing the media. Maybe a little bit lost as well when hearing questions about whether he “genuinely" feels that he has "a chance of getting that seat" - questions in which the phrasing itself implies that there's good reason for him not to "genuinely feel" that way. On Thursday in Abu Dhabi, when facing the media at the pen, he really had to think hard before providing answers to some of the questions.
"The narrative outside in the paddock is that your path to that team is blocked," journalists tell him. "Is that a fair assessment?" And Tsunoda's answers suggest he himself doesn't know all that much more than those on the "outside".
"I didn’t… I mean, first of all, we don't talk [often]," he replied, sounding almost confused - perhaps not by the question itself, but about how it’s possible for someone to believe that his path to Red Bull can even theoretically be "blocked".
"We didn't see [each other] much," he added. "I don't know, but I don't think so. I don't know, because I met Christian, and he said, you know, 'I keep an eye on you', whatever, you know, said he didn't forget [about me] or something like that, I guess. So I don't think... I wouldn't say, necessarily, I completely got blocked."
Then he added: "I hope."
A lot has been made of his emotional control. Tsunoda is shouty on the radio, he allegedly lets emotions take over and loses control. At least, that’s the stamp on him that emerged in year one.
Okay, there’s no denying some of his broadcasted messages do sound a bit noisy still. But is he the only one? And didn't Verstappen, the guy who the Red Bull bosses measure all their drivers against, almost completely lose it in Hungary earlier this year, first lashing out at his race engineer and then crashing into Lewis Hamilton?
Emotions do take over sometimes. It happens to the best of us, doesn't it? But only in Tsunoda's case is it seen as the rule rather than the exception - regardless of how often he actually allows himself to raise his voice after pressing the radio button.
"I’m sure I've stepped up in that area," is his response. "And yeah, if they said that last year, it makes sense but this year, I stepped up quite a lot, I think. And there's not many occasions that I went complete out of control, to be honest. I don't think so. If they said that, I don't think... to be honest, for me at least, that's not true, really.
"And I saw multiple drivers getting out of control, and they don't get picked up much [in the broadcast]. So yeah, and I don't really feel necessarily that I was being out of control [in] a lot of races."
You’d probably need to go back to last year’s Mexican Grand Prix to find an example of Tsunoda really losing a good result because of his temper. As he revealed later, he actually wanted to prove a point in that race: starting from the back of the grid because of the engine penalty, he almost put himself in a position to challenge his then team-mate Ricciardo - but got frustrated because he just couldn’t pass the McLaren of Oscar Piastri.
He crashed and shouted on the radio. But that very mistake came out of anger towards the world, which kept insisting that if Ricciardo "beats Tsunoda consistently" he’s going to end up being Verstappen’s team-mate again. Curiously, there was no provision for what should happen if the opposite happens. And when the opposite did happen, the world just decided that "it’s probably not the same Ricciardo anymore".
Tsunoda had outperformed Nyck de Vries before that - only for the paddock to conclude that the Dutchman isn’t F1 material. Despite all the previous talk about how, with all his experience in other categories, he should be the leader of the Faenza team straight away. And right now, Tsunoda is still comfortably ahead of Lawson in their head-to-head qualifying battle. He scored more points as well.
In Lawson’s case, there’s talk about "trajectory" and "potential" - and there’s room to improve. It can’t be possible that we’ve seen all he’s got. But, by that same logic, there's no guarantee that his ultimate potential is anywhere near enough to match Verstappen. But since he's calm and self-assured, he probably won't let that become an additional pressure. On the other hand, if he's just slower, what's the point of not worrying about it?
At the end of the day, even if Tsunoda is too emotional, he keeps outqualifying and outscoring one team-mate after another. Maybe not "destroying" them, but beating them comfortably.
"[From performances compared] to my team-mate is quite clear, and…what I've done this year is quite clear that I should get a chance," he said. "But I don't know, it’s up to them.
"Formula 1 is also a political sport as well and anything can happen. I'm sure partly the last race here is quite important. But for me, I feel like every race so far has been a very important race because, started [from the] first race, fighting with Daniel, [had I lost to] Daniel, I’d be the person probably right now sitting on the sofa."
There have been mistakes, naturally. He crashed in Q2 in Mexico, ruining not only his qualifying but his team’s chances to score big points that weekend. Which is pretty inexcusable - especially when all eyes are on your battle with a new team-mate.
It’s difficult not to agree with Helmut Marko, and see it as proof that Tsunoda isn’t really good at handling pressure. And his ill-fated attempt next day to regain all what was lost in one corner can be taken as a sign of immaturity.
But that Mexican weekend doesn’t say anything more about Tsunoda than that he probably isn’t ready for a top seat - despite making progress through his years in F1. He was not the best available option this year - if Red Bull had really wanted a proven top driver in the second car, Carlos Sainz wouldn't have found himself settling for a Williams deal.
"Red Bull had me available for six months, and they didn't pick me," Sainz said in most recent F1 podcast. "I think it's because I simply don't fit into the type of driver that they need right now in Red Bull. And I'm completely fine with that. If anything, they're making me a favour."
And this is exactly the problem Red Bull is trying to solve. The ideal second driver needs to tick too many boxes. He’s got to be quick, but probably can't be too quick at the same time - not to disturb Verstappen too often or take away points from him in the championship, even if only in a couple of races a year. He’s got to be ambitious, but probably not ambitious enough not to upset the camp. And then calm, self-confident and consistent as well.
Sainz is not the type of driver they're looking for. That driver isn't Tsunoda either. That driver also isn't Lawson. Even less so, given his inexperience. That driver, perhaps, doesn't really exist.
But if Horner and Marko are now finding themselves needing to choose between the two RB drivers, it’s just got to be Tsunoda. Because throwing Lawson into the garage next to Verstappen is simply a repeat of the same mistake they had made many times before.
A season in F1 wasn’t enough for Daniil Kvyat to be promoted to the senior team in 2015. A season and a bit wasn't enough for Gasly a couple of years later. And the dozen races he got in the first half of 2019 proved not to be enough for Alex Albon.
Going the same route with Lawson while having someone in the system who over four years has proven he can learn and constantly improve, and who did beat all his team-mates in the last two years, just doesn’t make sense.
Rewarding Tsunoda for all his work sure seems the only logical choice to make right now. And it's almost as if that's why it probably won't happen.
Watch: Threats, Lies & Backstabbing: The Verstappen vs Russell Feud Explained - F1 Abu Dhabi Media Day
