A record seven out of ten Britons do not like the Conservative Party, according to a bombshell poll which put the keys to No10 within Sir Keir Starmer’s reach.
The Ipsos survey for The Standard also showed a record 41 per cent of adults in the country now believe the Labour leader is ready to be Prime Minister, up from 33 per cent just weeks ago in May.
It found 83 per cent are dissatisfied with the Government, the worst ever seen this close to an election, and far higher than the 64 per cent for the Callaghan administration in 1979 after the Winter of Discontent.
In a series of further damning findings for the Tories:
- The Conservatives are on a joint record low of just 19 per cent (as in April this year), and down four points from just weeks ago, with Labour on 42 per cent, down one point, but still with a 23-point lead.
- Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has jumped from nine per cent to 15 per cent, eating into the Tory vote, with the Liberal Democrats up three points to 11, and Greens down two points to seven per cent.
- Three quarters (75 per cent) are dissatisfied with Mr Sunak as Prime Minister, up two points from a month earlier, the worst score Ipsos has seen for a PM so close to an election.
- Seventy-two per cent said they do not like the Conservative Party, far higher than the worst for Boris Johnson of 62 per cent in June 2022, of Theresa May of 58 per cent in September 2018, and David Cameron’s 60 per cent in October 2012.
- Seventy-eight per cent say it is “time for a change” of Government, up from 73 per cent in May, and Labour leads the Tories as having the best policies on a range of issues including managing the economy, the cost-of-living crisis, tax, immigration and pensions.
The poll results will fuel the belief that Labour is heading for a landslide victory, with the Tories being rocked by the election date betting scandal just days before the July 4 polling day.
But there is still no swell of enthusiasm for Sir Keir, with 33 per cent satisfied with him as Labour leader, up two points, and 52 per cent dissatisfied, no change.
So if he wins, it would mean he would go into Downing Street with a lower rating as Opposition Leader than Mr Cameron, Tony Blair or Margaret Thatcher.
Fifty-seven per cent of adults dislike Sir Keir, his worst score, and 34 per cent like him, down three points on March 2023.
Despite these findings, the Labour leader maintains a 25-point lead over Mr Sunak as “best PM”, on 46 per cent to 21 per cent respectively.
Sixty-seven per cent dislike Mr Sunak, up from 49 per cent a year ago.
Fifty-nine per cent dislike Mr Farage, with 30 per cent liking him.
Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said: “The Conservatives are finding themselves unable to turn the tide of public opinion, with 7 in 10 or more unhappy with the Prime Minister and with the government’s performance, disliking the Conservative party and overall just wanting a change. Whilst a relatively high one in three say they may still change their mind, at the moment there is little sign of this benefiting the Conservatives.
“In fact, with Labour ahead on the key issues of this election, people have become more open to the prospect of a Starmer government since the campaign began, and there are signs of tactical voting among Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters.
“At the same time the Conservatives are being challenged on the other flank by the rise of Reform, particularly on the issue of asylum and immigration, with Nigel Farage as popular among 2019 Conservatives as Rishi Sunak.
“So far this has been a campaign to forget for the Conservatives, but the fundamental challenges they were facing in public opinion were in place even before the election was called.”
In London, there are a number of hotly-contested election battles underway.
The Standard has drawn up an interactive map of all 75 constituencies in the capital.
Forty-nine per cent say Labour is ready for government, up two points since earlier in June, the poll found.
Just 16 per cent believe the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected.
Labour leads the Tories as having the best polices on managing the economy by 33 per cent to 23 per cent, on taxation by 28 per cent/20 per cent, on reducing cost of living 36/15, Britain’s future ties with the EU 28/15, healthcare 41/9 (matching the Tories previous lowest ever in 1994/95), and and asylum and immigration 25/12 (with Reform in second on 17 per cent).
On crime and anti-social behaviour, Labour is ahead by 30 per cent to 15 per cent, on housing 36/10, transport 29/11, pensions 27/23, and poverty and inequality 40/9.
The Conservatives are only marginally ahead on defence by 27 per cent to 24 per cent.
Economic optimism in Britain is little changed since last month, with 28 per cent expecting economic conditions to improve over the next 12 months, 25 per cent to stay the same, and 38 per cent get worse.
* Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,402 British adults aged 18+ by phone 21-24 June 2024, of whom 794 gave a vote intention included in the headline figures. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a range of potential sources of error. Further details at www.ipsos.com/en
