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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Business
Patrick Commins Economics editor

Recession off the cards but Australia faces dreary outlook, economists say

People walk across a sunlit plaza casting long shadows, with a modern glass structure visible
Consumer confidence is at around a 50-year low as many Australians struggle to cope with higher prices after years of above-average inflation. Photograph: @ Didier Marti/Getty Images

Fears of a recession have fallen away, with economists saying Australia is set to safely navigate the biggest global oil supply shock in history even as they warn of substandard growth in the year ahead.

The de-escalation of the Middle East conflict has been accompanied by a major retreat in global oil prices back to prewar levels, essentially removing the worst-case scenarios contemplated before Donald Trump’s wobbly ceasefire with Iran was announced in mid-June.

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