Few divisions offer more intrigue than the AFC South.
For starters, the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence emerging as a new face of the NFL. In Houston and Indianapolis, the Texans and Colts have first-round quarterbacks who could change the landscape for teams long on hope but short on recent results. Then there’s the Titans, who are always a tough out, with coach Mike Vrabel and a strong defense.
But how do the rosters stack up? None of the four teams made huge free-agent signings, but each had notable draft picks who could alter the division both now and into the future.
Here’s how we see the AFC South rosters, from worst to best:
4. Indianapolis Colts
This was a tough call between the Colts and Texans. Both are in a complete rebuild, and each has a rookie quarterback taken in the top four picks of April’s draft. Finally, each has a first-time, first-year coach.
However, the Colts get the bottom spot on the list. Why? Name one player you would reliably say is going to the Pro Bowl. The list begins and ends with Quenton Nelson. Linebacker Shaquille Leonard is an All-Pro talent when healthy, but he played three games last year while dealing with a back injury. Running back Jonathan Taylor is phenomenal, but he was limited to 11 games and struggled behind a horrid offensive line in 2022. DeForest Buckner would be the other candidate, having made the Pro Bowl twice in his career (once with the Colts).
Still, we’re talking about an interior offensive lineman, running back, off-ball linebacker and a defensive tackle.
If Anthony Richardson plays great, Indianapolis will obviously be far more interesting. But who will he throw to outside of Michael Pittman Jr.? Can the line hold up? Will the defense be as stout without veteran corner Stephon Gilmore (dealt to the Cowboys)? So many questions, and very few obvious answers.
3. Houston Texans
The Texans aren't exactly a Super Bowl contender, but they made some nice progress this offseason. Houston was able to lock up All-Pro left tackle Laremy Tunsil to a three-year extension, while also selecting quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. with the second and third picks in the draft.
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Furthermore, the Texans are building off a fine rookie class, which saw safety Jalen Pitre, running back Dameon Pierce and corner Derek Stingley Jr. all showcase the ability to be long-term fixtures. Add in the smart free-agent signing of safety Jimmie Ward, and it's been a productive offseason for general manager Nick Caserio.
All that said, this is still a team deep in a rebuild. Houston doesn’t have any proven weapons on the outside, save for an aging Robert Woods, who was brought in after he was cut by the Titans. The defense has little else of proven value past Anderson in the front seven. If Houston is going to field a tough defense, it’ll likely be because Anderson is great right away, and first-year coach DeMeco Ryans shows his talents with scheme and play-calling.
The Texans are making strides, but they've still got a long way to go before becoming a playoff-type team.
2. Tennessee Titans
Welcome to a new era of Titans football. Sort of. Tennessee hired first-time GM Ran Carthon to guide the team through a transition period—made evident by cutting a bevy of players in the offseason, including linebacker Zach Cunningham, kicker Randy Bullock, receiver Robert Woods, edge rusher Bud Dupree and left tackle Taylor Lewan.
The focus has clearly been to get younger, cheaper and more flexible in future years, but the job isn’t done yet. This could well be the final year of quarterback Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee, along with star running back Derrick Henry. Then there’s Pro Bowl safety Kevin Byard, who is reportedly open to a trade.
Still, Carthon didn't dismantle the roster without a plan. He added tackle Andre Dillard, and linebackers Arden Key and Azeez Al-Shaair in free agency, along with offensive lineman Peter Skoronski, quarterback Will Levis and running back Tyjae Spears in the draft. In addition to acquiring the aforementioned linebackers, Tennessee maintained an excellent front seven by extending Jeffery Simmons with a four-year, $94 million extension in April, while also getting edge rusher Harold Landry back from a torn ACL.
The Titans have clear holes, but with Vrabel on the sideline, they’re always a threat.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
The question for the Jaguars isn’t whether they’ll be the top team in the AFC South—by any reasonable measure, that’s beyond reproach. The question is whether they’re ready to take the proverbial leap and join the conference’s elite, tangling with the Chiefs, Bengals and Bills come January.
Despite a quiet offseason that saw few significant acquisitions, the roster is a good one. Third-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence appears on the cusp of superstardom. His weapons are fantastic, led by receivers Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, tight end Evan Engram and running back Travis Etienne. While the offensive line is a bit concerning with a rookie in Anton Harrison at right tackle—and left tackle Cam Robinson suspended six games for violating the league's performance-enhancing drug policy—the unit has enough talent to be tough.
Defensively, Jacksonville needs a better season out of edge rusher Josh Allen, who is entering a contract year. Allen notched only 17 sacks over the past three seasons after totaling 10.5 as a rookie. If he can shine, that’ll open up more opportunities for defensive linemen Dawuane Smoot and Roy Robertson-Harris.
If there's a pressing concern, though, it’s the secondary. Neither the corners or safeties are particularly strong, which might not hurt in the lackluster AFC South, but it could end the season come the playoffs.
