When the College Football Playoff decided to expand to 12 teams two years ago, one of the driving forces was that it would provide postseason access to teams that normally wouldn’t be garnering a mention in the national title chase. While that has undoubtedly infused hope this season among fan bases like the Iowa State Cyclones, BYU Cougars and Indiana Hoosiers, teams in the Group of 5 conferences have the most to gain from the new format.
For those in need of a refresher, the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a bid to the playoff alongside the seven highest-ranked at-large teams remaining in the CFP selection committee’s final ranking. The top four conference champions will receive a first-round bye while the fifth—the highest-ranked conference champion from one of the Group of 5 conferences most years—will be in one of the four first-round games hosted on the campuses of teams ranked No. 5 through No. 8.
That’s right, being the top Group of 5 champion in the eyes of the committee no longer means you get a nice trip to a big bowl game, but rather you’re in the main tournament with an opportunity to actually win the national championship on the field of play.
It’s a big deal and a good reason why there’s some heft behind thinking about the 12-team playoff enhancing the regular season. Suddenly, games from the Pacific Northwest to central Texas to the upper reaches of New England all carry a different weight as the year wears on.
Who in the Group of 5 is still in contention for that elusive first bid to the playoff following a wild week of action in college football? Here’s an examination of all the contenders as the calendar turns to November and the selection committee meets to rank teams for the first time next week.
1. Boise State Broncos
Following their 29–24 victory over the UNLV Rebels on Friday in Las Vegas, the Boise bus is revving up to speed and leading the field just like it did when the program first burst onto the national scene as a BCS buster. The Broncos have a Heisman Trophy candidate in tailback Ashton Jeanty, a salty defense and have played up to the standard expected of the top Group of 5 team.
They also have a quality resume that includes the “best” loss in the country (a 37–34 loss to the Oregon Ducks on a last-second field goal), a convincing win over the 7–1 Washington State Cougars and sit in pole position in the Mountain West race following the win over UNLV. Boise State is the highest-ranked Group of 5 team in both polls and will likely be the same in the committee’s rankings next Tuesday. This is its spot to lose by both eye test and overall resume.
2. Army Black Knights
One of the biggest story lines during the first half of the season, Jeff Monken’s program is 7–0 for the first time since 1996 and owners of the nation’s longest winning streak (11 games). The Black Knights are one of just two teams (the Indiana Hoosiers being the other) to have a top-10 scoring offense and defense in FBS, on top of ripping through the schedule with impressive results (plus-196 scoring margin). In addition to playing well between the lines, Army is 6–0 in conference play and, depending on results elsewhere, could wind up clinching a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game well before Thanksgiving if it beats the North Texas Mean Green on Nov. 9.
While it’s possible both the Mountain West and AAC champions make the playoff this year, it’s more likely to be an either/or situation with just one making it into the field. To date, Boise State has played a more difficult slate (Sagarin strength of schedule ranking of 67 vs. Army’s 145) and has better wins despite having a blemish against Oregon.
Given that the annual game against the Navy Midshipmen takes place after the final set of rankings used to determine the playoff, the Black Knights have just one opportunity for a top 25 win (prior to the conference title game, at least) when they play the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium. Even if they were to lose that one at a neutral site, how well they play over the course of the game against a fellow playoff contender will likely be a massive proxy for the selection committee to weigh when trying to compare Army against a fellow one-loss conference champion such as BSU.
3. Tulane Green Wave
Though it has two nonconference losses, Tulane joins Army and Navy with an undefeated record in AAC play and is currently on a 14-game winning streak in league play. It’s played well under new head coach Jon Sumrall and nearly got the victory in both of its games against Power 4 opposition, including a controversial finish against the Kansas State Wildcats that would certainly get brought up in the committee room should they win out this season.
The Green Wave have a tough path ahead with several AAC contenders (Navy, the Memphis Tigers, potentially Army in the title game) left on the docket, but the flip side is the opportunity to pick up wins over fellow contenders that would all but eliminate other competitors for the Group of 5 bid in the process. They need some help, but an 11–2 Tulane—with a conference championship and three wins over teams by double digits—could still be an appealing pick for the committee come December.
4. Navy Midshipmen
Saturday was one to forget for just about everybody at Navy, not just losing to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, 51–14, but turning the ball over six times and looking uncompetitive against the only ranked team it has played in the process.
Still, there’s a pretty clear path to the playoff there for the taking should the Midshipmen win out and enter Selection Sunday 11–1 with an AAC championship plus a top 25 victory over what would likely be Army prior to their Week 15 regular-season battle. It would help if the winners of the other four Group of 5 leagues finish with two losses, but the potential discussion between Navy and a one-loss Boise State would be robust for the committee should it take place.
5. UNLV Rebels
The close loss to Boise State didn’t eliminate UNLV from playoff contention, but it makes the path difficult. It helps the Rebels have two Power 4 victories already, but the Kansas Jayhawks and Houston Cougars combining to go 3–7 in Big 12 play detracts from that résumé boost more than it should.
More problematic is that even winning out might not allow for UNLV to face Boise State again and offer the former a chance to avenge that five-point home loss. Because the Colorado State Rams (3–0 in MWC) miss both the Broncos and Rebels on the schedule, it’s possible that even a 10–2 finish keeps Barry Odom’s squad away from the bubble completely.
6. Memphis Tigers
Schedule quirks are going to be a big talking point, and nobody is going to understand that more in the coming weeks than Ryan Silverfield’s team. It’s nice the Tigers have a Power 4 road win (albeit over the disaster that is the Florida State Seminoles), but their lone loss is going to prove quite problematic. Even if Memphis wins out, it is not guaranteed to even make it to the AAC title game because it would lose a tiebreaker to Navy and won’t play Army. At 11–1, it’s possible this team isn’t a conference champion, though, and would have to be an at-large selection.
The committee isn’t going to put Memphis in the field over a two- or three-loss power-conference team given the relative lack of top 25 wins, so the Tigers will need some help over the next few weeks.
7. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Remember, all five conference champions from the Group of 5 will have a shot to be selected by the committee, and the 6–1 Ragin’ Cajuns are sitting pretty as the class of the Sun Belt right now. It seems unlikely they run the table with stiff tests upcoming at the Texas State Bobcats and Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, but there’s a sliver of hope should they finish 12–1. Doesn’t hurt that the lone loss was by one score to Tulane.
8. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
The Hilltoppers are undefeated in Conference USA play (as are the Jacksonville State Gamecocks, though they are 4–3 overall) and, like the Cajuns, have a shot to be in contention for the committee as a potential Group of 5 champion. Both of WKU’s losses were on the road to Power 4 teams, including a one-point loss in the final three minutes to the Boston College Eagles. It’s an extreme long shot, but there’s at least a sliver of hope at winning out and having chaos happen elsewhere to the point where they sneak into the field.
9. Liberty Flames
Wednesday’s loss to the previously winless Kennesaw State Owls likely saved the selection committee a potentially awkward situation of having the Flames scrape by undefeated this year but still wind up on the outside of the playoff field. Liberty has dreadful schedule metrics and played much worse than it did a year ago when it made the Fiesta Bowl. It’s possible the team winds up as a 12–1 Conference USA champion, but it would have to see every other Group of 5 contender suffer two or three losses to even be in the conversation for a committee that should send a message about playing a meaningful schedule.
One other to note: Washington State Cougars
Washington State survived a scare at the San Diego State Aztecs on Saturday night to move to 7–1. However, even if head coach Jake Dickert’s squad beats the Oregon State Beavers in a few weeks to claim a nominal Pac-12 title, the Cougars are not eligible to claim an automatic spot in the playoff as one of the highest-ranked conference champions. That’s a result of the league dropping down to two members in 2024 and ’25 and some complicated maneuvering that allowed for the playoff to expand in the first place.
For most folks not involved in the minutia of the selection committee’s process, it’s best to just consider the Cougs in the same boat as Notre Dame. They’re a potential at-large candidate at 11–1 with a single loss to a playoff contender in Boise State, but can’t get in automatically (nor can they earn one of the four byes). It will be an uphill battle even if they win out to make the field over a two- or three-loss Power 4 team, but there’s a chance, at least, that they get favorable enough results elsewhere to sneak into the top 11 or 12 of the committee’s final ranking.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Ranking Group of 5 College Football Playoff Contenders.
