No brainer bet: Bijan Robinson the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year | 10-round fantasy mock draft: A rookie goes in Round 1
The NFL has been awarding the Offensive Rookie of the Year since 1967.
In the ensuing 56 seasons, 35 running backs, 11 receivers and 10 quarterbacks have won the award.
However, since 2004, the dynamics have changed. Over the past 20 years, only six running backs have been named Offensive Rookie of the Year, while nine quarterbacks have earned the accolade. Yet over the past two years? Two receivers, in the Jets’ Garrett Wilson and the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase.
So what does it all mean? Well, quarterbacks are the favorite, but don’t sleep on the other skill positions. And with that in mind, here are our five top picks to win the award this year, including two backs, two quarterbacks and a receiver.
5. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
The Lions shocked the football world in selecting Gibbs with the No. 12 pick. Two days later, D’Andre Swift was traded to the Eagles, only further solidifying the notion that Gibbs will be the main back from the start.
At Alabama, Gibbs was electrifying, totaling 1,370 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in 2022. On Detroit’s offense, he’ll play behind one of the league’s best offensive lines, while defenses can’t stack the box due to receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who was suspended six games for violating the NFL’s gambling policy after an investigation by the league.
Additionally, the Lions play in a weaker conference and a division featuring two poor defenses in the Bears and Vikings. Then there’s the Dan Campbell factor. He wants to play a physical brand of football. Between his ethos and the Lions’ likely trying to salt away wins late, Gibbs should get plenty of opportunities to prove he’s worthy of being a first-round pick.
4. Jordan Addison, WR, Vikings
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There was no top-tier rookie receiver in this class like we saw with Wilson, Chase and Chris Olave over the past two years. However, Addison makes a ton of sense as the one to watch for this season.
While Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Quentin Johnston will have to battle for targets with other established receivers, Addison will slot in comfortably as a starter in Minnesota with Justin Jefferson. And considering Jefferson is the league’s best wideout, the USC rookie is assured of never seeing double coverage or the opponent’s top corner.
The Vikings also love to throw the ball, as evidenced by quarterback Kirk Cousins throwing for more than 4,200 yards and at least 29 touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. Provided he learns the offense quickly, Addison is a great bet to make an instant impact for Minnesota’s attack.
3. Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Richardson is the ultimate boom-or-bust choice. The Colts could go with veteran backup Gardner Minshew for a good portion of the season while Richardson acclimates himself to the offense. Minshew comes over from the Eagles, where he played under then coordinator Shane Steichen’s direction. Steichen’s now the coach in Indianapolis.
There’s also the factor of Richardson being very raw even by rookie standards. Between high school and college, the Florida native didn’t throw 900 passes. However, his talent is evident, and, if his game translates quickly, he could be one of the more exciting rookies to hit the NFL in some time.
While the Colts don’t have an all-star cast around Richardson, they do have an intriguing group headlined by receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, and running back Jonathan Taylor. If things break right, Richardson will be a box-office draw in Indy.
2. Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
If a running back is going to win this award, Robinson has to be the pick. The Texas tailback was dominant in the Big 12, running for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry. Now he joins the Falcons, who have one of the smartest offensive schemes in the league under coach Arthur Smith.
After watching rookie Tyler Allgeier rush for 1,035 yards, Robinson should be in for a terrific season. With receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts forcing defenses to play back and respect the passing game, Robinson will have ample moments to exploit light boxes and run free into secondaries.
The big question is whether Robinson will be the feature back by a wide margin, or whether Allgeier will get a solid split of the carries. If it’s the former, Robinson might be the best bet on this list. If it’s the latter, he’ll have a tough time getting the necessary numbers.
1. Bryce Young, QB, Panthers
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We have to conclude our list with Young. The Panthers have real talent and a coach who played quarterback in the league, along with a young, improving offensive line, including left tackle Ickey Ekwonu.
Young was a wunderkind with the Crimson Tide, throwing for 79 touchdowns against 12 interceptions over his past two years in Tuscaloosa, all while winning the Heisman Trophy. In Carolina, Young has receivers Adam Thielen, DJ Chark and Terrace Marshall Jr., along with running back Miles Sanders, to keep defenses guessing.
Young will also get six games against the league’s weakest division (NFC South), along with four more games against the middling AFC South and another two courtesy of Carolina’s third-place schedule.
With Young’s talent, surroundings and circumstances, he tops our list as the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
