The Cleveland Browns have a special running back in Nick Chubb. It has been apparent from the day he cracked 100 yards and two touchdowns on just three carries in just his fourth career game. He has since been named to the Pro Bowl in every season beyond his rookie campaign and was named as a second-teamer All-Pro in 2022.
Many smart individuals think Chubb is the best running back in the league despite never winning a rushing title for the Browns. So we do the exercise for ourselves.
Where does Chubb land in our starting running back rankings?
Rushing yards over expected and DYAR formerly from Football Outsiders were both used in forming these rankings.
32. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bottom of the barrel in rushing yards over expected, 34th in DYAR, and it shows in the box score as well. White was inefficient and ineffective for the Buccaneers a year ago.
31. Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
There is a reason the Washington Commanders are interested in Kareem Hunt (even off of a year where he showed he had no juice). While Brian Robinson is a great story after returning to the field last year, He failed to average four yards per carry, was 30th in rushing yards over expected, and 34th in DYAR. He brings little to nothing in the passing game as well.
30. Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are taking a big risk by putting Mattison in the driver’s seat after parting ways with Dalvin Cook. He’s never been overly efficient, is coming off of an injury, and has the makings of nothing more than a placeholder.
29. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Always a bit of a misfit as a gap-power runner in Denver’s zone-dominated scheme, Williams is now also coming off of a massive injury where he tore his ACL, LCL, and PLC. The Broncos haven’t made an upgrade at running back yet, however, so Williams may get another year to prove his value.
28. Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
While Cam Akers is coming off of a career year with the Rams, racking up 786 yards rushing and seven touchdowns, he remains a relatively inefficient back. Now with Zach Evans on the roster as well, Akers will have to prove he deserves the bell-cow role in Los Angeles, a team that looks to be quite bad entering 2023.
27. Damien Harris, Buffalo Bills
Leaving New England for Buffalo, Damien Harris has been a back who has proven to be a dime-a-dozen. There is not a trait that separates Harris, he is not a threat in the passing game, and his health has been a continuous question mark. The Bills have been in desperate search of a running back who can spark their run game, so he will have opportunities.
Can he finally capitalize?
26. James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
James Conner has made quite the career for himself after being cast off from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Under Kliff Kingsbury, Conner even proved he has the potential to be a threat as a receiver out of the backfield. He will have the chance to be a true bell-cow this year as well in Arizona as the Cardinals are going to be bad and without a quarterback.
He is aging, however, and has still yet to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing in a single season.
25. Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Pierce was criminally under-used at the University of Florida and made the most of his carries during his rookie season with the Houston Texans. Just missing out on 1,000 yards rushing last season, a new offensive coordinator and actual talent at the quarterback position could give Pierce some added running lanes.
24. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon took a massive step back last season with the Cincinnati Bengals to the point where there were conversations surrounding his status on the team. He only mustered up 814 yards on 210 carries, averaging less than four yards per pop. He is still just 26 years old, there is plenty of tread left on his tires, but Mixon will be in need of a bounceback season.
23. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Isaih Pacheco was a revelation for the Kansas City Chiefs a year ago. As former first round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire continues to flounder, the seventh rounder has taken the reigns. He runs angry and explosive, and nearly eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing despite not seeing consistent carries until Week 9 a year ago.
22. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions had a funky first round this past April, selecting both running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell. However, Gibbs is capable of making defenders look silly in the open field, a weapon in the passing game, and can hit a home run at any time. The Lions have another weapon offensively.
21. Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
Despite racking up just 23 carries in the first five games of the 2023 season, Walker managed to rush for over 100 yards in five of his last 11 games. The problem for Walker, however? The Seattle Seahawks cannot stop using high draft capital on running backs. He is the top dog, especially after a dynamic rookie season, but Zach Charbonnet is destined for carries as well.
20. Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Khalil Herbert is this year’s breakout candidate. File him under the category of extremely efficient on limited reps.
And now with David Montgomery off to Detroit, Herbert will be first in line for those carries even after the team drafted Roschon Johnson this past April. Look for Herbert, who was 14th in rushing yards over expected and 11th in DYAR in 2022, to make the most of those opportunities.
19. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
When healthy, J.K. Dobbins is one of the most explosive and productive running backs in the NFL. However, he is rarely healthy. In just eight games and with just 92 carries a year ago with the Ravens, however, Dobbins racked up 520 yards and two touchdowns (averaging nearly six yards per carry). He is entering a contract year and looking for a new deal, and while he is threatening to hold out, he could just be on track for a massive season if he can stay on the field.
18. Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Raheem Mostert may be the fastest player on this list. Actually, there is a good chance he is. And it helps to have played a large chunk of his career with Kyle Shanahan or his protege Mike McDaniel. While the Dolphins drafted Devon Achane, another track star with game-breaking speed, to take over for the future, Mostert and Jeff Wilson will again be the guys this year.
And they will continue to rip off chunk runs after chunk runs.
17. Breece Hall, New York Jets
Nobody averaged more yards after contact (among those with the qualifying amount of carries) than Breece Hall a year ago. Hall’s rookie season, however, was a flash in the pan. He did not see starter carries until Week 4, then suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7.
During that four-week span, however, Hall rushed for 351 yards, four touchdowns, and averaged nearly six yards per carry. If he is fully healthy in 2023, and the Jets are hopeful he will be ready by Week 1, then Hall has the ability to skyrocket up the rankings.
16. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris gets the benefit of the doubt of playing under a bottom-tier offensive coordinator in Matt Canada and behind a below-average offensive line. However, Harris was incredibly inefficient and had just one game of over 100 yards rushing in all of 2022. The Steelers made upgrades to the offensive line, so this year will be telling for Harris.
15. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
The New England Patriots have always operated under a running back-by-committee approach. However, after the physically imposing season, Rhamondre Stevenson put together a year ago, it may be time to rethink that and give him the lion’s share of carries. He was second in the NFL in yards after contact among those with the qualifying amount of carries and sixth in runs over 15 yards.
Now imagine if he had a workload over just 210 carries.
14. Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
Sure, Shane Steichen’s scheme gets a ton of credit for the success of Sanders in 2020. However, the ability to average nearly five yards per carry and run for over 1,200 yards is not a universal trait in running backs no matter the scheme. Now with the Carolina Panthers and with Frank Reich, Sanders has fallen into another great scheme for his skillset.
13. D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
There is still hope for D’Andre Swift, once my darling draft crush back in 2020. Again, Sanders racked up career numbers with the Eagles last year, and Swift is a better, versatile back. While the Eagles lose Steichen to the Colts, the scheme should not alter tremendously. Look for Swift to breakout in a big way after getting traded to Philadelphia.
12. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
The 28-year-old running back has now hit career lows in back-to-back seasons with the Saints, and it might be time to be a bit worried about his pathway back to elite production. He is, however, just two years removed from a season with over 1,600 total yards and 21 touchdowns. Perhaps an improvement at the quarterback position will help Kamara get back to his elite ways.
11. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
No longer behind the shadow of the inefficient Ezekiel Elliott, Tony Pollard will finally get the chance to be the lead dog for the Dallas Cowboys. He even expects to be ready for training camp despite breaking his fibula in the playoffs. He’s efficient as both a runner and receiver, but the question has to be asked: can he carry a heavier workload?
10. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Is it early to rank Bijan Robinson as a top-ten running back in the NFL already? Probably. However, look for Robinson to touch the ball a ton of times for the Atlanta Falcons in 2023 both as a runner and receiver, instilling himself as a top back in just his rookie season.
9. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
As the Jaguars continue to spread the ball out and look to create explosives all over the field, Etienne should continue to find room to work.
8. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
It was a down year riddled with injuries for the 2021 rushing title winner, but recency bias will not drop Jonathan Taylor out of the top ten. The offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts has been in shambles, ranking near the bottom of the league a year ago. This has directly impacted the efficiency of Taylor as a ball carrier.
Now with a quarterback with wheels and a new play-caller who can scheme up lanes for him, Taylor should be back in business in 2023. As long as he can stay healthy.
7. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
It seems as though Austin Ekeler enters every season underrated and then bursts onto the scene time and time again. One does not just luck into 107 catches in a season out of the backfield. Ekeler is a massive threat with the football in his hands and is versatile enough to scheme up creative ways to get him touches.
After racking up 1,600 total yards and 18 touchdowns for the Chargers a year ago, Ekeler is still a force to be reckoned with as he enters this season at the age of 28.
6. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Two things can be true: Josh Jacobs is coming off of a season where he won a rushing title, and there are other backs who would top him if they were given his workload. While Jacobs is the top dawg and bell-cow in Las Vegas, a team that will once again run him into the dirt given their offensive talent, there are a few other backs in the NFL who would kill for the opportunity Jacobs saw.
5. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
What a bounce-back it was for Saquon Barkley in 2022 after a serious injury in 2020 and a down year under Joe Judge in 2021. He is still lethally explosive, elusive as they come, and a threat to hit a home run every time he touches the ball. A large chunk of the Giants’ success, and that of quarterback Daniel Jones, was due to Barkley.
4. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones never has and never will see the workload of Jacobs or Derrick Henry, but it is hard to find a consistently more efficient back than the one toting the rock for the Green Bay Packers. On top of that, Jones has hovered right around 50 catches in each of the last four seasons as well.
Jones will be that dude until he is no longer that dude.
3. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry is one of the only true workhorses (over 300 carries in three of the last four seasons!) in the NFL, and that looks to continue in 2023 as the Tennessee Titans field an XFL wide receiver room and a declining Ryan Tannehill. He does not seem to be slowing down either, rebounding after a season-ending injury in 2021, running for a massive 1,538 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Titans.
2. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
I’m probably higher on Christian McCaffrey at this stage of his career, but he is a certified weapon with a playcaller who knows how to best utilize his talents. In his 11 games with the 49ers in 2022, McCaffrey rushed for 746 yards and six touchdowns, adding another 464 yards and four touchdowns on a massive 52 catches.
In a 17-game sample size, that is a massive 1,869 total yards and 15 touchdowns, adding another 80 catches. That is elite production for a running back with a one-of-one skillset in the NFL. If he can stay healthy, McCaffrey (still just 27 years old!) can maintain his status as an elite running back with the 49ers.
1. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
The most efficient running back in the NFL, tenth in rushing yards over expected, continuously at the top of the league in production, and the best skillset in the NFL, Chubb is not only the best running back in the NFL but the best running back in our hearts as well.
