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Daily Record
Sport
Gabriel McKay

Rangers and Celtic in automatic Champions League spot waiting game as court case and continental competition threaten jackpot

We may be taking a break from the title race for Scottish Cup weekend but things look set to go right down the wire.

That's a marked contrast to recent years and focusing the mind is the potential of a £40million Champions League group stage jackpot for the champions.

Either Celtic or Rangers are virtually guaranteed to go straight into the competition proper for next season, a potential game-changer for both teams.

There are, however, two factors which could see this season's Premiership champions instead have to play a two-legged tie in the play-off round to make it to the promised land.

The first, and it puts football firmly into perspective, concerns the ongoing war in Ukraine.

UEFA indefinitely suspended Russian teams from the competition after Vladimir Putin's troops invaded their neighbour state, meaning their representatives, Spartak Moscow, were eliminated from Europe.

However, the Russian Football Union has lodged an appeal at the Court of Arbitration for Sport to have the ban overturned, with the judiciary to give an interim ruling in days.

RB Leipzig have already been given a bye in the Europa League so that won't affect this season, meaning Scotland is already guaranteed a Champions League place for the 2022-23 league winners.

All eyes will be on the case for this season's champions though, as the allocation of places is based on the UEFA coefficient at the start of this season.

Of the 32 group stage places, 26 grant automatic entry.

Those are the 10 champions from the top 10 leagues by coefficient, the six runners-up from the top six, and the third and fourth placed teams from those ranked one to four.

A further two places are reserved for the winners of the Champions League and Europa League, but are reallocated if those teams have already qualified.

If the winners of the secondary competition have already qualified then the team that finishes third in Ligue 1 will get their place.

Should the Champions League winners already be in the competition - as has happened every year since 2012 - then the champions of the nation ranked 11th, Scotland at the beginning of the season, gets their place.

If the ban on Russian teams is upheld then their group stage place for starting the season ranked eighth will not be needed, every nation will be bumped up a place and the Scottish champions will be in.

However with UEFA not specifying their legal reasons for excluding the Russian sides, there is a chance it could be overturned by CAS.

If that happens all eyes are once again on the teams remaining in this season's Champions League, with Celtic and Rangers hoping the winners qualify via their own leagues.

The statistics website FiveThirtyEight uses a complex algorithm to predict the outcome of both continental competition and domestic leagues around Europe.

There's no supercomputer to predict CAS decisions, but we've taken a look at the likelihood of each team left in the Champions League both winning it and failing to qualify via the league.

Here's what to keep an eye on if the Russian clubs are allowed back in.

Manchester City

According to the algorithm City are currently the team joint most likely to lift the famous trophy at the end of the season.

Having battered Sporting 5-0 in Lisbon, a heavily rotated side got the job done at the Etihad in the second leg.

(Manchester City FC via Getty Ima)

Pep Guardiola's side are massive favourites to win the Premier League but even if they don't there's basically no chance they won't make the top four.

Chance of missing top four: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 24 per cent

Bayern Munich

The supercomputer has upgraded its assessment of the likelihood that Bayern will win the Champions League - winning 7-1 against the Austrian champions will do that.

The Bavarian giants are closing in on a 10th Bundesliga title in a row, with the algorithm giving just a two per cent chance they'll be dethroned.

Even in that extremely unlikely scenario there's no chance they'll miss out on the top four.

Chance of missing top four: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 24 per cent

Liverpool

They may have faltered over the winter thanks to Covid issues and AFCON absences but Jurgen Klopp's men are still regarded as one of the favourites for the Champions League.

Beating Inter over two legs has seen their odds rise from 15 per cent to 20 per cent, just a step below the two favourites for the competition.

Rangers and Celtic fans can have no fears if they're cheering on Andy Robertson though, Liverpool are a lock for the top four.

Chance of missing top four: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 20 per cent

Chelsea

It's chaos off the pitch at Chelsea, with owner Roman Abramovich seeing his assets frozen and the Blues unable to generate cash.

They may be on the Eurostar as they travel to their second leg against Lille but Thomas Tuchel's side have a 2-0 lead in their back pocket.

If they get the job done it'll knock out a potential danger to the automatic spot without any knock-on effect - the computer has them 99 per cent likely to make the top four.

Chance of missing top four: One per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: 11 per cent

Ajax

After drawing at Benfica in the first leg of their last 16 tie Ajax have fallen a place in the rankings but they're still rated as having an 8 per cent chance of lifting the Champions League.

They're going to win the Eredivisie though, or at least make the top two, so the romantic option holds no fear for our clubs.

Chance of missing top two: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: eight per cent

Real Madrid

The definition of European aristocracy, Madrid have 13 Champions League titles to their name and boss Carlo Ancelotti has three of his own.

They came back from a 2-0 aggregate deficit to knock out Paris Saint-Germain and while they may not be the force they once were you'd never write Los Merengues off in continental competition.

They look a lock to win La Liga though - FiveThirtyEight has it at 96 per cent - and they're certain of a top four place in all but mathematics.

Chance of missing top three: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: seven per cent

Villarreal

One to keep an eye on in next week's matches is Juventus vs Villarreal in Turin.

We'll come to the Italians in a bit but as things stand it's the visitors who pose the biggest threat to that automatic place.

Villarreal are six points off a top four place in La Liga, with the algorithm giving them just a 21 per cent chance of finishing in a Champions League place.

Unai Emery's side aren't given much of a chance of winning the competition but if they go to Italy and win they have to be considered contenders.

The tie is finely poised after a 1-1 draw in the first leg, and of course Juve's away goal doesn't count for double anymore.

Chance of missing top four: 79 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: two per cent

Atletico Madrid

An upturn in form for Diego Simeone's side is good news for whoever is crowned champion of Scotland at the end of the season.

They've won four of their last five in La Liga and FiveThirtyEight now gives them a 74 per cent chance of finishing in a Champions League place.

(PA)

Their tie against Manchester United is well balanced, with Ralf Rangnick's men taking a 1-1 draw in Spain.

If Atleti go to Old Trafford and win though it won't be too much of a sweat for Rangers or Celtic.

Chance of missing top four: 26 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Two per cent

Manchester United

The Old Trafford Omnishambles could yet have an impact on Celtic or Rangers down the line.

Manchester United are currently only a point outside of the top four but the algorithm gives them only a 10 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

(Getty Images)

That's because Arsenal, who sit ahead of them, have three games in hand while Tottenham, two points behind, have played two games fewer.

Spurs may be inconsistent but they're showing signs of starting to click under Antonio Conte, winning 4-0 and 5-0 in their last two league games, while the Gunners have lost only one of their last 10.

You wouldn't bet on United winning the Champions League but for that group stage place an Atleti win would settle some nerves.

Chance of missing top four: 90 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: One per cent

Lille

The French champions did represent a risk to the automatic group stage place, as they struggle in their title defence.

However, Les Dogues are 2-0 down to Chelsea after the first leg of their tie so it would take an extraordinary turnaround at home for them to progress.

Fans of Scotland's top two can probably breathe easy.

Chance of missing top three: 78 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Less than one per cent

Benfica

It's far from certain Benfica will get an automatic place via the league, though they'll almost certainly be top three.

FiveThirtyEight gives them next to no chance of winning in Europe though, even after a 2-2 draw with Ajax in the first leg of their last 16 tie.

If fans of Celtic or Rangers want to look to the spirit world for reassurance, there's also the 'Curse of Bela Guttman'.

The legendary Hungarian coach was denied a pay rise after winning back-to-back European Cups and left the club in 1962.

It's said that he declared "not in 100 years from now will Benfica be champions of Europe". Between the Champions League and Europa League they've been to eight finals since and lost every one.

Chance of missing top three: Less than one per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Less than one per cent

Juventus

Previously Juve looked like the biggest threat to that automatic Champions League place but they've put together an impressive run in Serie A.

The football has hardly been inspiring but they're unbeaten in the league since November 27 and now have a six point cushion over Atalanta in fifth.

FiveThirtyEight gives them a 61 per cent chance of qualifying for the Champions League and a less than one per cent chance of winning it this season.

Chance of missing top four: 39 per cent

Chance of winning Champions League: Less than one per cent

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