The Los Angeles Rams are gearing up to face the New Orleans Saints tonight, their final home game of the regular season at SoFi Stadium. It’s an important matchup between two teams fighting for a playoff spot in the NFC, but one the Rams are expected to win.
While they may be the better team on paper, the Rams can’t overlook a motivated Saints team that has won two games in a row coming into this one. Here are the Rams’ four biggest causes for concern in Week 16.
1
Limiting big plays to Chris Olave
With Michael Thomas out, Olave is the unquestioned top option at wide receiver for the Saints. He’s a good top option, too. The young receiver has deep speed and is a sharp route runner, allowing him to create separation from his defender in man coverage.
With the ability to line up outside or in the slot, the Rams will have a few different defenders covering him, from Quentin Lake to Derion Kendrick and Ahkello Witherspoon. When Olave is outside, the Rams must make sure they have a safety helping over the top.
Los Angeles has had coverage breakdowns in the last few weeks that have led to big plays and easy touchdowns for opponents, so those issues must be fixed on Thursday night.
2
Converting on third down vs. Saints' stingy defense
The Saints’ defense has actually been pretty good this season, aside from allowing the ninth-most rushing yards in the NFL. They’re allowing the fifth-fewest yards per possession, sixth-fewest passing yards per game and have given up the sixth-fewest points. That’s all partly because of their ability to stop teams on third down.
The Saints rank fourth in opponent third-down conversion rate, allowing teams to move the chains just 34.9% of the time on third down. The Rams have the 10th-best third-down offense (41.9%), and that number is even better in the last three weeks (43.2%).
The Rams have to keep drives moving by converting on third down, which will allow them to limit how many possessions the Saints have on offense.
3
Slowing down Alvin Kamara
Kamara may not be the dominant back he once was, but he’s still a dynamic all-around player who can impact the game as a runner and receiver. He has six games this season with at least 100 yards from scrimmage and has scored six touchdowns in 11 games.
He’s particularly effective as a receiver, recording at least 33 yards receiving in nine of his 11 games this season. Expect Derek Carr to target Kamara a bunch in the passing game — he ranks second on the team with 68 receptions — so Ernest Jones and the other back-end defenders will need to rally to the ball to ensure he doesn’t pick up big yardage after the catch.
4
Weird things happen on Thursday night
Neither team has a rest advantage in this game, each having played on Sunday afternoon. If anything, the Rams should be in better shape considering this is their second straight home game.
The one thing that’s somewhat concerning about a Thursday night game is the fact that weird things tend to happen in these short-week games. Teams favored by at least 4 points in Thursday games this season are 8-4 straight up, which is a decent rate but there were some surprising upsets by the Patriots, Bears and Packers earlier this year, all as underdogs of at least six points on the road.
Whether it’s breakdowns in coverage or sloppy play on offense, strange things happen in Thursday games with the lack of practice time and rest.
