Rajasthan, the largest state in the country in terms of area, is heading for Assembly elections on November 25 where 5.26 crore voters will go for polling to decide the next government in the state. The date earlier was scheduled for November 23 but it was changed by the Election Commission as many large-scale weddings and social engagements were slotted for Nov 23.
As per the schedule announced by the ECI, the last date for filing nominations is November 6. November 9 is the last date for withdrawal of candidatures. The tenure of the present Rajasthan assembly will end on January 14, 2024. The State has 200 assembly seats, of which 34 seats are reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC) and 25 for Scheduled Tribes.
Of the 5.26 crore voters, 2.73 crore are male voters and 2.51 crore are female electors. The State has 22 lakh new voters (electors in the 18-19 age group) and 11.7 lakh voters above the age of 80. Rajasthan voters are known for throwing out governments every election. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress are in a direct fight in Rajasthan, which also sends 25 members to the Lok Sabha.
While, the BJP, yet to announce a Chief Ministerial face, hopes the State to continue the tradition, the Ashok Gehlot-led Congress is out to make history by retaining the power. In the 2018 Assembly election, Congress secured 99 seats, two short of the majority of 101. It won Ramgarh when the election for the seat was held a month later. However, they were able to form the government with the help of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). On the other side, the BJP finished a close second with 73 seats.
Presently the Congress has 107 members in the assembly and BJP’s tally went down to 70. The Congress raised their tally by bringing BSP’s members to their fold and winning Mandawa by-election in 2019.
The polling percentage in the state has increased significantly since 1980. The polling percentage was 51.06 in 1980 and in the last Assembly election it was 74.06. However, the highest polling was recorded during the 2013 Assembly election - 75.04.
Rajasthan has a history of voting out the ruling party in every election. In the 2018 assembly poll, Congress swept to power with 100 seats, dislodging the BJP government led by Vasundhara Raje Scindia. In the 2013 assembly, the BJP received a thumping victory with 163 seats.
However, in terms of vote-share, the BJP has been able to increase its voter base in last two decades. From 18.6% vote-share in 1980, the BJP rose to 45.17% in 2013 election. In last Assembly election, the difference in vote share of BJP and Congress were just 0.53%. Since 1990, the election in the State has been a direct fight between BJP and Congress. Other parties has never been able to win more than 28 seats in any election since 1990 and their vote share remain under 30%.
Women represent 12% of the total members of the Rajasthan Assembly. Of the 200 seats, 24 are represented by women. In 2018, a total of 189 women contested in the election against 2105 male candidates. Of this, 138 lost contest with forfeiting the deposit.
Congress had a lead of 27 seats when they snatched power from the BJP in 2018. In the election, 38 candidates won with a victory margin of less than 5000 votes. Of this, 17 seats went to BJP and 13 went to Congress. Three independent candidates were Congress rebels. In 9 Assembly seats, the victory margin was less than 1,000 votes. As a State with large number of swing seats and close contests, Rajasthan will be a tough battle field for all parties, including the BJP and Congress.
