Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Huntingdon and Southwell’s evening AW card for three stats-based selections on Tuesday, November 12th…
HUNTINGDON 1.25
INNISFREE LAD (system – David Dennis, veterans’ handicap chases)
David Dennis does well in veterans’ handicap chases, scoring with nine of his 34 runners for a profit of £23.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. INNISFREE LAD is three from seven in these races and make be able to make it four from eight this afternoon. His trainer has a good overall record at this track, including a 200-1 winner at the last meeting.
SOUTHWELL 5.30
SUMMER RAIN (system – Stan Moore, nursery debut, AW, top 4 LTO)
Stan Moore has a useful record with his nursery debutants on sand, scoring with eight of the 82 qualifies since the beginning of 2008 for a profit of £33.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s a low strike-rate but those who finished in the top four on their latest outing were six from 32 for a profit of £55.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Four of the beaten horses finished second (50-1, 20-1, 16-1 and 10-1) while another six finished third or fourth. SUMMER RAIN very much caught the eye when keeping on into a 20-1 fourth of eight in a 5f Wolverhampton maiden last time and is worth chancing now making his handicap debut over a longer trip.
SOUTHWELL 7.30
LION OF WAR (system – Roaring Lion, Polytrack to Tapeta switchers, top 4 LTO)
Progeny of the sire Roaring Lion have a useful record when switching from Polytrack to Tapeta, landing five of their 20 starts for a small profit at SP (+£1.80). Those who finished in the top four on their latest outing had form figures of 311111425 (5-9) for a profit of £12.80 and Charlie Johnston’s LION OF WAR, a close-up 14-1 third at Kempton on his latest start, was a winner at Newcastle on his sole previous Tapeta outing is taken to maintain his 100% record on the surface.
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Related
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