Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the jumps meetings at Kelso and Huntingdon for his two stats-based picks on Sunday, December 8th…
KELSO 11.55
DEDICATED HERO (system – Sandy Thomson, second run over hurdles, winter)
Sandy Thomson’s runners usually improve for their first start over hurdles and backing those having their second outing over timber, in the November to February period, would have found 13 winners from 56 bets (23.2%) for a profit of £80.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 6.21, A/E = 2.09). DEDICATED HERO raced in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail when third (4-5 favourite) at Carlisle on last month’s hurdles debut and is worth another chance.
HUNTINGDON 3.00
THEYSEEKHIMTHERE (system – Warren Greatrex, chase debutants in handicaps)
Warren Greatrex has a good recent record with chase debutants who were pitched straight into handicap company, scoring with nine of the 43 qualifiers for a profit of £5.58. Twelve of the beaten horses finished second or third and an each-way punt on THEYSEEKHIMTHERE, 20-1 best at the time of writing, could pay dividends. The six-year-old won first time up on soft ground last term and has had a wind operation ahead of his seasonal/chase debut.
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Related
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