Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
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Andrew heads to Warwick and the evening AW action at Chelmsford for his three recommended bets/trades on Thursday, December 12th…
WARWICK 1.25
LUCKY LUGGER looks like one of those consistent/reliable Matt Sheppard handicap chasers who can place at least in this novices’ handicap. Since the beginning of 2014, backing the yard’s handicap chasers blind would have found 73 winners from 432 (16.9% strike-rate) for a very healthy profit of £128.46 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 48.64, A/E = 1.50). This lightly raced seven-year-0ld is 0-8 under Rules but has finished second at Chepstow in both starts since switched to fences and he tends to race close to the pace, ideal for today’s venue. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back LUCKY LUGGER in Warwick 1.25
CHELMSFORD 6.00
Hugo Palmer seems to be a fan of Lope De Vega and he does exceptionally well with the sire’s progeny on the all-weather, scoring with 16 of the 46 qualifiers for a profit of £31.67 (expected winners = 8.68, A/E = 1.84). Those running at Chelmsford had form figures of 2111121113427326 (7-16) for a profit of £20.25 and CABELLEROSO failed to settle when only fifth of nine (11-10 favourite) at Doncaster in mud-June when we last saw him but the switch to Polytrack and first-time hood can bring about the required improvement.
Recommendation: Back CABELLEROSO in Chelmsford 6.00
CHELMSFORD 8.00
HIATUS bolted up over course and distance last Thursday, coming late wide to score by four lengths but he may have been flattered, despite the four-length winning margin. All bar one of the winners came from midfield or further back at that meeting and the Polytrack surface looked much slower on the inside rail, putting low-drawn prominent racers at a huge disadvantage. Conrad Allen’s four-year-old has yet to back up a win – recording form figures of 4676 (0-4) and he looks one to oppose at shortish odds. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose HIATUS in Chelmsford 8.00
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting with fixed odds betting tips
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