Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Cheltenham, Uttoxeter and Wetherby for his four stats-based selections on Saturday, November 16th…
UTTOXETER 12.10
LAND AFAR (system – Kim Bailey early-season break-returners)
Since 2021, Kim Bailey is 33 from 129 (25.6%) with his runners in October-December who were returning from a break of 150 days or longer and backing them all would have yielded a profit of £51.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 21.21, A/E = 1.56). Lightly-raced nine-year-old LAND AFAR, runner-up at Huntingdon in March on his stable debut when we last saw him, can go one better in this 2m4f maiden hurdle.
WETHERBY 1.00
ACT OF AUTHORITY (system – hurdle winners, quick return in British handicap hurdle, speed adjusted)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing last-time out winning hurdlers who were returned to the track within seven days to contest a handicap hurdle in Britain would have seen us land 379 of our 937 bets (40.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £45.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had one of the two best last time out speed figures (according to Proform’s ratings) were 228 from 487 (46.8%) for a profit of £75.50. ACT OF AUTHORITY, one of five winners to come out of Josh The Boss’s Chepstow race last month, clocked a fast time when bolting up at Sandown and can follow up.
CHELTENHAM 1.10
COME ON TEDDY (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers)
Harry Derham has a fantastic record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 23 of the 56 runners (41.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £59.45 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 13.83, A/E = 1.66). The handicappers were 15 from 26 (+£46.60) and COME ON TEDDY, ex-Tom George, looks set to run a big race in this amateur riders’ handicap chase.
CHELTENHAM 4.00
AUDACIOUS ANNIE (system – Jamie Snowden, third run in a bumper)
Jamie Snowden has a solid record with his runners having their third start in a bumper, scoring with 14 of the 49 qualifiers for a profit of £14.76 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.07, A/E = 1.73). AUDACIOUS ANNIE, a winner on her debut at Wetherby at about this time last year, disappointed in Listed company at Market Rasen next time but her yard is in great form and first time out could be when to catch her.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
- Check out more horse racing news on the site with regular updates
- See Andy Newton’s ‘Lay Of The Day’ daily horse racing feature
