Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew found well backed Cheltenham winner PEAKY BOY on Sunday and has three stats-based selections on Monday, November 18th…
LEICESTER 2.40
SUITABLY SURPRISED (system – hurdle winners, quick return in a handicap hurdle, speed adjusted)
Last-time out hurdle winners do well when bidding to follow up in a handicap hurdle within a week of their victory and, since the start of 2012, those who were ranked in the top two on Proform’s last time out speed ratings were 230 from 491 (46.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £76.94 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 192.33, A/E = 1.20). SUITABLY SURPRISED clocked a useful time for her narrow Sedgefield win just four days ago and can follow up.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00
SUN KEEPER (system – Alice Haynes, Wolverhampton, colts and fillies)
Alice Haynes has a solid record at Wolverhampton, especially with here colts and fillies. Backing all 74 qualifiers would have found 17 winners for a profit of £85.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.10, A/E = 2.39). The in-form handler had a 22-1 winner in the Middleham Park colours here on Saturday and perhaps newcomer SUN KEEPER can follow suit.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.30
TAN RAPIDO (system – Charlie Fellowes, second run since gelded)
Charlie Fellowes has a good record with his runners who were having their second start after a gelding operation, scoring with 16 of the 75 qualifiers (21.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £95.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.51, A/E = 1.39). Those who finished in the top three last time out were ten from 27 for a profit of £55.18 (expected winners = 5.64, A/E = 1.77). TAN RAPIDO fared best of the closers when a close-up 10-1 third in a 6f Chelmsford handicap last time – his first run at the trip, first since a gelding operation and first for 169 days – and can go well again.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
- Check out more horse racing news on the site with regular updates
- See Andy Newton’s ‘Lay Of The Day’ daily horse racing feature
