Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the jumps meetings at Newbury and Musselburgh for his three stats-based selections on Friday, November 29th…
NEWBURY 12.15
DON’T WIND ME UP (system – Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, non-handicap hurdles at Newbury)
The Hobbs & White yard has a good record in non-handicap hurdles at Newbury, scoring with 36 of the 165 qualifiers (21.8% strike-rate) this century for a huge profit of £158.27 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 24.33, A/E = 1.48). DON’T WIND ME UP fared best of the closers when a 14-1 third of 12 in a maiden hurdle at Ffos Las on his latest outing and can reward each-way claims again.
MUSSELBURGH 12.38
JET PATROL (system – Sandy Thomson, winter runners)
JET PATROL wouldn’t be an obvious play after beating only one home at Kelso last time, but he jumped out to his right on the left-handed track and it’s safe to ignore that effort. Sandy Thomson’s seven-year-old has yet to win a race but was in with very chance when coming down three out at Hexham on his penultimate start and the switch to right-handed Musselburgh could help.
MUSSELBURGH 1.10
YOU SOME GIRL (system – hurdle winners, quick return in a British handicap hurdle, speed adjusted)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing last-time hurdle winners who were returned to the track within seven days to contest a handicap hurdle landed 387 of their 950 starts (40.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £50.27 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 339.96, A/E = 1.14). Those who were ranked first or second on Proform’s last time out speed figures won 235 of their 498 starts (47.2%) for a profit of £78.33. Hat-trick seeking YOU SOME GIRL scored with plenty in hand at Catterick last week and can follow up.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
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