Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Catterick, Ascot and Newcastle (AW) for his three stats-based selections on Friday, November 22nd…
CATTERICK 12.05
YOU SOME GIRL (system – handicap hurdles in Britain, won over hurdles last time out, quick return)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing handicap hurdlers in Britain who had won over hurdles last time and were returned to the track within a week would have found 385 winners from 945 bets (40.7% strike-rate) and returned a profit of £52.37 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 337.46, A/E = 1.14). YOU SOME GIRL scored comfortably in a useful time at Newcastle seven times ago and can follow up.
ASCOT 1.30
WADE OUT (system – Uttoxeter winners next time out)
Uttoxeter form has travelled well in the last couple of years, with winners at the Staffordshire venue (since the beginning of 2013) following up 79 times from 265 qualifying bets (29.8%) for a profit of £52.41 (expected winners = 61.28, A/E = 1.29). Olly Murphy’s WADE OUT, successful in his sole point outing, took his record under rules to two from two when keeping on well to land a Uttoxeter novices’ hurdle last time and looks a shade of value in this “Introductory” hurdle.
NEWCASTLE 4.10
GOOD REWARD (system – Newcastle straight-track handicaps, stall 1)
Most punters and pundits regard high draws as favoured in straight-track handicaps at Newcastle (5f-1m) but stall 1 runners have more than held their own of late and they often go off at value prices. In the past 12 months, simply backing all stall 1 runners in handicaps of six or more runners on the straight course would have found 44 winners from 284 bets (15.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £78.04 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 24.87, A/E = 1.77). GOOD REWARD, who makes her nursery debut, needs to step up on considerably on what she’s shown in maiden/novice company but she’s a huge price (50-1 best at the time of writing) and could be worth a small each-way interest.
Check out the best horse racing betting sites in the UK right now.
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Over at online bookie BetUK, there’s a neat new customer offer where punters can sign up and get £30 in free bets after betting £10. Here are all the details:
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
- Check out more horse racing news on the site with regular updates
- See Andy Newton’s ‘Lay Of The Day’ daily horse racing feature
