Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing value bets via handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to Cheltenham, Dundalk and Wolverhampton for his three stats-based selections on Friday, November 15th…
CHELTENHAM 1.10
DOUBLE POWERFUL (system – hurdle winners, quick return in British handicap hurdle, speed adjusted)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing last-time out winning hurdlers who were returned to the track within seven days to contest a handicap hurdle in Britain would have seen us land 379 of our 937 bets (40.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £45.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had one of the two best last time out speed figures (according to Proform’s ratings) were 228 from 487 (46.8%) for a profit of £75.50. DOUBLE POWERFUL clocked a fast time when completing his five-timer at Fontwell and his patient running style will be an asset in this 18-runner conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle.
DUNDALK 6.15
SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE (system – Cotai Glory, geldings on the all-weather)
Gelded progeny of the sire Cotai Glory have a 53 from 342 record on the all-weather in Britain/Ireland (15.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £72.44 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those aged two or three were 34 from 197 (17.3%) for a profit of £93.46. Michael Mulvany’s juvenile SUNRISEONTHEBOYNE returns to the all-weather for the first time since his racecourse debut when a respectable sixth here at Dundalk after running green over an inadequate 5f trip.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30
RUNAROUND SIOUX (system – Sioux Nation, small fields, 5f-7f only)
Progeny of the sire Sioux Nation have a useful record in small fields (ten or fewer runners), especially over the shorter trips (5f-7f). Backing all 455 qualifiers blindly would have found 91 winners (20% strike-rate) for a profit of £129.89 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 69.10, A/E = 1.32). RUNAROUND SIOUX contributed with a 5-1 Chelmsford win in February and though 0-3 since, she’s had excuses, failing to see out 7f either side of a 9-1 fourth of 12 over 6f at Chelmsford where she blew the start and emerged clear best of those to come from off the pace. She’s been freshened up since her latest defeat and is well drawn in this 6f handicap.
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Related
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