Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew heads to the jumps action at Warwick for his stats-based selections on New Year’s Eve (Tuesday, December31st)…
WARWICK 1.20
SUPERVISOR (system – veterans’ handicap chases, 10yos, finished sixth or worse last time out)
Ten-year-olds, the youngest age group eligible to take part, have a good record in veterans’ handicap chase company and the value often lies in backing those who finished sixth or worse last time out – the logic being that they struggled to compete with younger rivals, often in a much better class of race and are now running at a more realistic level. Had we backed all 551 qualifiers we’d have found 81 winners (14/7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £87.40 to a £1 level stake at SP. SUPERVISOR, a reappearance winner last term, trailed home 29 lengths behind the winner in sixth of nine at Ffos Las when we last saw him but can bounce back now freshened up.
WARWICK 3.30
BIG BERT (system – Affinisea, bumpers)
Blindly backing all progeny of the sire Affinisea in national hunt flat races would seen us hit 18 winners from 114 bets (15.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £1.23 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 13.07, A/E = 1.38). Those with prior experience under rules were ten from 51 (19.6%) for a profit of £17.33, while those with experience who were racing on officially good to soft or softer going were eight from 27 (29.6%) for a profit of £30.08. Point-to-point winner BIG BERT failed to settle when runner-up at Carlisle on his rules debut 30 days ago and can take a step forward this afternoon.
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