Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount contributes to various Racing Post publications including the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus the GG.co.uk website. Unearthing handy systems and statistics, he shares his latest thoughts with SportsCasting readers below.
Andrew gives you the low-down on the stats that matter across four races at Aintree, Downpatrick and Wetherby on Boxing Day (Thursday, December 26th)…
AINTREE 11.55
MAJESTIC JAMEELA (system – Stuart Edmunds, first-time cheekpieces, handicaps)
Stuart Edmunds has an eight from 34 record (23.5% strike-rate) when using first-time cheekpieces on a handicapper (+£19.83 to a £1 level stake at SP) against an expected number of winners of just 4.43 (A/E = 1.81). MAJESTIC JAMEELA disappointed at Carlisle last month but that run, her second of the season after an early fall at Chepstow on her return to action, would still have been needed. Her three wins have come in races confined to mares she’s back in such company this morning.
AINTREE 12.30
HERBIERS (system – Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero, hurdle to chase switchers)
Horses going chasing after a run over hurdles score at a lower-than-expected rate, but some trainers do well in these circumstances, including the in-form team of Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero. Since British racing resumed after an enforced COVID break in June 2020 the score is 27 from 119 (22.7%) for a profit of £30.55 to a £1 level stake can be expected to SP (expected winners = 17.42, A/E = 1.55). HERBIERS is already a winner over fences and do better in this 2m4f handicap chase having pulled up in handicap hurdle company on his reappearance.
DOWN ROYAL 1.58
TANKARDSTOWN DIVA (system – Ian Donoghue, handicap chase debut)
Ian Donoghue has only had eight individual runners make their handicap chase debut, with four winning for a profit of £23.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. This is obviously a very small sample size but it’s an angle I shall continue to monitor, and it suggests a big run from TANKARDSTOWN DIVA could be in the offing. The five-year-old mare raced here twice in handicap company over hurdles, going down by a nose on her handicap hurdle debut before scoring next time out, and it looks significant that her trainer sends her here for her handicap chase bow.
WETHERBY 3.20
LET’S SAIL AWAY (system – Tom Lacey, first-time cheekpieces, hurdles)
The Tom Lacey yard has mostly struggled this season but a wind for My Friend Sean at Uttoxeter just before Christmas was an encouraging sign and LET’S SAIL AWAY might be able to improve on his recent efforts. The five-year-old was beaten by 34 lengths at Southwell earlier this month but I’m always prepared to forgive a poor effort over the fixed brush hurdles at that venue and the cheekpieces could perk him up today. Since 2016, his trainer is nine from 29 when using this headgear on a hurdler for a profit of £35.75 (expected winners = 4.61, A/E = 1.95).
Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsCasting
- Check out more horse racing news on the site with regular updates
- See Andy Newton’s profitable ‘Lay Of The Day’ daily horse racing feature
