It has been clear for months that taxes were likely to rise in the Budget this autumn. Rachel Reeves left herself so little margin for error in last year’s Budget that any bad fiscal news would mean that she would have to come back for more.
Almost from the moment the chancellor sat down after delivering last year’s speech, the bad fiscal news has come thick and fast. She sought to stay on track in March by announcing savings in welfare spending, but those have now been blocked by her own MPs. Before that, the prime minister announced a U-turn on means-testing the winter fuel payment, restoring it to most pensioners.