ANALYSIS — Even with President Joe Biden’s job approval rating stuck underwater, Democrats have a path to the House majority. It just involves winning virtually all of the Toss-up races.
On the other hand, even though Republicans are seeing their current House majority shrink with each passing resignation, the GOP is better-positioned to maintain control of the House a little more than seven months before Election Day.
Currently, the math is easier for Republicans if they win the races they are currently favored to win. The 187 races rated as Solid Republican by Inside Elections, added to the 29 races rated as Likely, Lean, or Tilt Republican gets the GOP to 216 seats. That means Republicans need to win just two of the 10 Toss-up races to get to 218.
