Donald Trump portrays himself as a hard-nosed dealmaker. Yet in the run-up to Friday’s summit with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, his claim that the Russian leader held him in high regard and was therefore serious about ending the war in Ukraine sounded naive. Putin doesn’t let sentimentality shape his political and military decisions. Nor has he disavowed his longstanding claim to four Ukrainian provinces: Donetsk and Luhansk, which together comprise Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, and Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in the south. Despite Russia’s overwhelming numerical advantage in troops and weaponry, Putin occupies only one province, Luhansk, almost entirely. Yet he persists.
In the days before his meeting with Putin, Trump said the Russian economy “stinks” and that falling oil prices would cause Russia’s war to run aground. The war has certainly placed severe strains on Russia’s economy, including high inflation and interest rates, labour shortages and a lack of investment by private businesses. Earnings from oil sales, a key source of state income, have also shrunk by 18% this year due to falling prices. There has even been talk of a recession. But these pressures have not prompted Putin to reassess his war plans. He ignored Trump’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accepted right away. Likewise, he was unfazed by Trump’s threats to impose additional sanctions – with “severe consequences”, as he put it just before the summit – if Russia did not relent.
