Vladimir Putin’s forces have failed to “effectively destroy” Ukraine’s Air Force leaving Volodymyr Zelensky’s government in control of the majority of the country’s airspace, British defence chiefs said on Wednesday.
Ukraine’s air defences have also not been “suppressed” by Mr Putin’s invasion, which was launched on February 24, leaving Russian planes and helicopters flying over the country “at risk”.
These failures meant Russian air activity is “primarily focused” on the south and east of the country, with “very limited air access” in the north and the west.
They were also limiting Russia’s ability to carry out “deep strikes” into Ukraine.
Mr Putin has refocused his military campaign on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine after his initial lightning invasion plan, which included seizing Kyiv within days, floundered and his troops were forced to retreat.
The Ministry of Defence in London also stressed that the majority of air attacks on the besieged city of Mariupol were being carried out with “unguided, free-falling bombs” which would lead to higher civilian casualties than if precision weapons were being used.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 27 April 2022
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) April 27, 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/yBkEQmjzoS
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/r4vIO69jIM
More than 20,000 civilians in the port city on the Azov Sea are feared to have been killed.
Mr Putin has abandoned his attempt to completely capture the city and has instead ordered his forces to surround the last Ukrainian stronghold in a sprawling steelworks.
In its latest intelligence briefing, Britain’s Ministry of Defence said: “Ukraine retains control over the majority of its airspace.
“Russia has failed to effectively destroy the Ukrainian Air Force or suppress Ukrainian air defences. Ukraine continues to hold Russian air assets at risk.”
It added: “Russian air activity is primarily focused on southern and eastern Ukraine, providing support to Russian ground forces. Russia has very limited air access to the north and west of Ukraine, limiting offensive actions to deep strikes with stand-off weapons.”
The defence chiefs continued: “The majority of Russian air strikes in Mariupol are likely being conducted using unguided free-falling bombs. These weapons reduce Russia’s ability to effectively discriminate when conducting strikes, increasing the risk of civilian casualties.
“Russia continues to target Ukrainian military assets and logistics infrastructure across the country.”
Meanwhile, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss was due to use a major speech on Wednesday evening to call for allies to increase defence spending and supply tanks and warplanes to Kyiv.
She was also set to stress that the West must prepare for the “long haul” to ensure Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.
In the speech at the Mansion House in the City of London, Ms Truss was expected to argue that Mr Putin’s invasion of Ukraine showed the need for a shake-up of the international structures which failed to prevent Russia’s actions.
She was due to argue that Western allies need to impose even tougher economic sanctions to increase Russia’s isolation, including cutting off oil and gas imports “once and for all”.
“There must be nowhere for Putin to go to fund this appalling war,” she was set to say.
In a call to Western allies, she was due to add: “We cannot be complacent - the fate of Ukraine remains in the balance.
“And let’s be clear - if Putin succeeds there will be untold further misery across Europe and terrible consequences across the globe. We would never feel safe again.
“So we must be prepared for the long haul and double down on our support for Ukraine.
“Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes - digging deep into our inventories, ramping up production. We need to do all of this.”
Boris Johnson however has insisted the UK and other “sympathetic” countries would continue to provide Kyiv with intelligence-sharing, training and “Nato-grade” weaponry.
In an interview on Tuesday with TalkTV he indicated he would be happy to see the Ukrainians use UK-made armaments to strike targets inside Russia.
“They are being attacked from within Russia territory. They have a right to protect and defend themselves,” he said.
He also dismissed reports that further defeats for Russian forces could see a frustrated Mr Putin resort to using low-yield tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
“Given the massive Russian backing for what he is doing, given the apparent obliviousness of the Russian media about what is really happening in Ukraine, the paradox is that Putin has far more political space to back down, to withdraw,” he said.
Earlier, In the Commons, Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said Britain would provide the Ukrainians with longer-range Brimstone ground attack missiles “in the next few weeks”.
The UK was one of just eight Nato members to meet the alliance’s goal of spending at least 2% of gross domestic product - a measure of the size of the economy - on defence in 2021.
