Vladimir Putin’s army has built complex defences in southern Ukraine which could prove “formidable obstacles” if they are properly manned and supported by artillery, British defence chiefs said on Wednesday.
They believe his generals have ordered the three-layered defensive formations as they are convinced Kyiv is considering an assault towards the city of Melitopol.
In its latest intelligence update, the Ministry of Defence in London said: “Over recent weeks, Russia has continued to develop extensive linear defences in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in southern Ukraine. The area is highly likely the responsibility of Russia’s Southern Grouping of Forces (SGF).
“Russia has now completed three layers of defensive zones across approximately 120km (75 miles) of this sector.
“These consist of a front line of forward combat positions, and then two zones of nearly continuous, more elaborate defences. Each zone is approximately 10-20km (six to 12 miles) behind the one in front.”
The briefing added: “Russia has probably put significant effort into these defensive works because it is convinced Ukraine is considering an assault towards the city of Melitopol.
“The defences have the potential to be formidable obstacles, but their utility almost entirely depends on them being supported by sufficient artillery and personnel. It remains unclear if the SGF can currently muster these resources.”
A Ukrainian counter-offensive is widely expected to be launched within weeks after Putin’s spring advances failed to make any significant breakthroughs.
Ukraine said on Thursday that Russian forces had made some gains inside the eastern battlefield town of Bakhmut, but at a heavy price in lives lost.
Bakhmut has been the site of the bloodiest infantry battle in Europe since World War Two, with Russian forces seeking their first victory since mid-2022.
Ukraine has been on the defensive for nearly five months but says it is planning a counter-offensive soon.
“Enemy forces had a degree of success in their actions aimed at storming Bakhmut,” the Ukrainian General Staff said in an overnight report. “Our defenders are holding the (town) and are repelling numerous enemy attacks.”
The report gave no details of the Russian gains. The Institute for the Study of War think tank said Russian troops and Wagner mercenaries had captured territory in the south and southwest of the town over the past two days, and Wagner had occupied a metal plant in its north this week.
Russian forces have been advancing slowly inside Bakhmut in intense street fighting. A month ago, Kyiv seemed likely to abandon the town but has since decided to stay and fight for it, hoping to break the attacking force.
Deputy defence minister Hanna Malyar said in a social media post that losses were inevitable, but “the enemy’s losses are many times greater”.
Serhiy Cherevatyi, a Ukrainian military spokesperson, told national television: “Bakhmut remains the epicenter of military activity...It’s still constantly ‘hot’ there.”
As winter has turned to spring, the pressing question is how much longer Russia can sustain its offensive, and when or if Ukraine will strike back.
Putin’s invasion has destroyed Ukrainian cities, towns and villages and set millions of refugees to flight. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers on both sides have died.
