Ten days ago, the world was on tenterhooks as it watched an apparent mutiny (and perhaps coup attempt) by the Wagner mercenary group, which is led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, against Vladimir Putin's regime and its military commanders. But as quickly as the crisis began, it ended abruptly in a type of anticlimax one day later as Prigozhin's forces stopped their march on Moscow, stood down, and agreed to return to their barracks. Prigozhin has apparently accepted a type of exile in the former Russian Republic of Belarus, where he was promised amnesty by Putin. For now, at least, a civil war or other type of armed conflict inside Russia has been averted.
The punditry and many other professional Russia-Putin watchers quickly reached a consensus that whatever the final outcome of these recent events may be, one thing is certain: Putin has been greatly weakened and huge holes have punched in the appearance of his total control and power over Russia and its military. Ultimately, it is not a matter of if Putin will be brought down (in large part by the failure to win a quick victory in Ukraine) but when and by who.
