Data: NOAA; Note: 10, 25, and 75 year periods are calculated from 2013, 1998, and 1948 to 2022; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
Over the past 75 years, Punxsutawney Phil has correctly predicted whether there will be an early spring 69% of the time, according to an Axios analysis of NOAA data.
Why it matters: Over the long run, Phil is fairly accurate. It’s high time to vindicate Phil and let his record shine!
Details: Past analyses have slighted Phil by either including fairly few years of data, analyzing the U.S. as a whole, or being very generous as to their definition of an early spring.
We defined an early spring as one that’s significantly warmer — by one standard deviation — than the average of the previous 30 years.
- Phil was accurate 64% of the time over a 25-year period and 57% of the time over a 10-year period.
