Public opinion in Wales has decisively swung against Brexit, a major opinion poll has shown, with the number of people regretting the decision to leave the EU outnumbering supporters in all 40 of the nation's constituencies.
The finding comes from a Britain-wide poll that found there was only one seat in the whole of the mainland - Boston and Skegness in Lincolnshire - that still has more Leave supporters than those who think Brexit was a mistake. The poll, from Focaldata, involved collecting data from 10,009 respondents between December 12 and December 16 2022.
Its findings reflect a significant change from the referendum in 2016 that resulted in Brexit. At that time, the people of Wales voted by 52.5% to 47.5% to leave the EU, with a majority favouring Brexit in 17 of the 22 Welsh local authority areas. You can see the full EU referendum results map for Wales here.
The largest Leave share of the vote in the referendum was in Blaenau Gwent, where 62% of those voting backed Brexit and 38% wanted to remain in the EU. In the new poll, 48% of people in Blaenau Gwent thought leaving the EU had been a bad idea, with 33% thinking it was a good idea and the rest saying they didn’t know.
Commenting on the turnaround in public opinion, Blaenau Gwent Labour MS Alun Davies tweeted: “Blaenau Gwent recorded the largest leave vote in Wales. This poll reflects my experience in the borough. A mature democracy allows and enables people to change their minds.”
Mr Davies, who has been critical of UK Labour’s refusal to commit to rejoining the European single market and customs union, told us: “The key point is that there is little support for Brexit, but there appears to be a conspiracy to continue to impose Brexit on the UK from the London-centric political and media establishment. The rest of us need to find the route back to leading and shaping our European future.”
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Plaid Cymru MP Hywel Williams said: “It’s clearer than ever that the Tories’ destructive Brexit is harming our economy. Endless paperwork is making exporting near impossible, and harsh restrictions on European workers has led to severe labour shortages.
“Just like the closure of the 2 Sisters site in neighbouring constituency Ynys Môn, my constituency of Arfon is seeing the self-inflicted destruction of Brexit first-hand. Brexit has ruined the Menai mussel industry which had been a staple in fish counters and restaurants across Europe. Post-Brexit rules make the export of this world-class food unsustainable.
“It is no wonder then that more voters in all 40 Welsh constituencies now believe that leaving the EU was wrong than think the opposite. The figure is particularly high in my constituency of Arfon at 60%, with only 24% disagreeing.
“Voters no longer expect unspun reality from the Conservative Party. But for the Labour Party to stay silent about the harm of Brexit due to political expediency is unforgivable.”
Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader Jane Dodds said: “We have always campaigned against Brexit because we knew the damage it would cause to our economy and communities.
"But what this polling shows us is not just that people have changed their minds, but that the Conservatives have let people down with false promises.
"It also tells us that there is nothing stopping us from pursuing stronger economic links with the EU apart from rigid and impractical Conservative ideology.
“The public, whichever way they voted during the initial referendum, understand that we need closer trading relations with our nearest neighbours especially in the current economic climate.
“That is why the Welsh Liberal Democrats are continuing to push for single market membership."
Welsh Conservative Senedd leader Andrew RT Davies tweeted: “Today is a good day to remember that, after we undertook the biggest democratic exercise in our country’s history, some of our most senior politicians tried to overturn the result. We must never take our precious democracy for granted.”
* Constituency estimates in the poll are based on data from the 632 constituencies in England, Scotland and Wales, but do not include the 18 seats in Northern Ireland.
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