/Progressive%20Corp_%20HQ%20sign-%20by%20Kristi%20Blokhin%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
The Progressive Corporation (PGR), headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio, operates as an insurance holding company. Valued at $118.6 billion by market cap, the company provides personal and commercial auto, personal residential and commercial property, business related general liability, and other specialty property-casualty insurance products and related services.
Shares of this leading property & casualty insurance company have underperformed the broader market considerably over the past year. PGR has declined 19.6% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 15.6%. In 2026, PGR stock is down 11.5%, compared to the SPX’s 1.7% rise on a YTD basis.
Narrowing the focus, PGR’s underperformance is also apparent compared to the Invesco KBW Property & Casualty Insurance ETF (KBWP). The exchange-traded fund has gained about 5.8% over the past year. Moreover, the ETF’s 4.6% losses on a YTD basis outshine the stock’s low double-digit dip over the same time frame.
On Jan. 28, PGR shares closed up more than 2% after reporting its Q4 results. Its EPS came in at $4.45, up 12.1% year over year. The company’s adjusted revenue was $22.5 billion, beating Wall Street forecasts of $21.9 billion.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect PGR’s EPS to decline 11.1% to $16.23 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is mixed. It beat the consensus estimate in two of the last four quarters while missing the forecast on two other occasions.
Among the 25 analysts covering PGR stock, the consensus is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on eight “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” 13 “Holds,” one “Moderate Sell,” and one “Strong Sell.”
This configuration is more bullish than a month ago, with seven analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy.”
On Feb. 3, Citigroup Inc. (C) analyst Matthew Heimermann kept a “Buy” rating on PGR and lowered the price target to $261, implying a potential upside of 29.5% from current levels.
The mean price target of $251.48 represents a 24.8% premium to PGR’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $334 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 65.7%.
