Next year’s general election in Britain could be the most toxic in decades. Two things, Reform UK and immigration, seem certain to plague debate on the political right. The latest polls show the Tories on 21% and Reform up from 2% in 2019 to 10% now. Immigration is not the biggest electoral issue for voters, ranking behind the economy and health, but it is totemic for Reform. For the disaffected floating voters – polls suggest as much as 17% of the population is undecided – and the pursuing horde of politicians, it is code for control, security, community and national identity.
Excessive immigration was the primary issue that led the 2016 debate towards a hard Brexit. It is now taking the Tory leader, Rishi Sunak, down the same path, one of unattainable pledges to appease populist emotions. Brexit was supposed to curb immigration. Since 2019 it has shot up. For whatever reason, this central objective of Brexit has failed.
