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The Independent UK
The Independent UK
Sport
Jamie Braidwood

Premier League title race: Do Arsenal or Man City have the easier run-in?

Erling Haaland and Manchester City are hunting down Arsenal in the title race - (AP)

The Premier League is set up for another thrilling run-in after Arsenal returned to the top of the Premier League with victory over Newcastle.

Manchester City beat Arsenal at the weekend to set up a fascinating last month of the title race, cutting the Gunners’ lead to just three points before taking top spot with victory over Burnley.

Arsenal have regained the edge but City are yet to have a chance to respond, with their FA Cup semi-final commitments meaning they now once again have a game in hand.

The Gunners are bidding to finally end their 22-year wait for a league title but they could well face a shootout for this season’s trophy, with goal difference potentially deciding the destination of the title.

City denied Arsenal the title in both 2023 and 2024, and now the Gunners will feel they need four wins from their remaining four games in order to win the league for the first time since 2004.

However, City will likely feel the same, and with just a few games left of their campaign, here’s how the crucial run-in is shaping up.

Arsenal

Played: 34 | Points: 73 | GD: 34

Remaining fixtures:

  • 2 May - Fulham (H)
  • 10 May - West Ham (A)
  • 17 May - Burnley (H)
  • 24 May - Crystal Palace (A)

Toughest game? With the trip to Manchester City out of the way, there’s one fixture that stands out with just four more league games to go. Fulham are in a good vein of form and overcame Champions League-chasing Aston Villa on the weekend to show their European credentials. Indeed, it may prove that the game against relegation-threatened West Ham proves more difficult.

Final straight? While the loss to City is damaging, Arsenal can only try and win all of their final four games now, and bounced back successfully against the Magpies. In May, they will play Fulham and Burnley at home. Mid-table Fulham will likely be in ‘nothing to play for’ territory, as will 19th-placed Burnley, who have already been condemned to the drop. Crystal Palace could be preparing for a Europa Conference League final by the time they head to Selhurst Park for the final game of the season. West Ham, though, will be fighting for their lives.

Man City

Played: 33 | Points: 70 | GD: 37

Remaining fixtures:

  • 4 May - Everton (A)
  • 9 May - Brentford (H)
  • 17 May - Bournemouth (A)
  • 22 May - Aston Villa (H)
  • TBC - Crystal Palace (H)

Toughest game? Pep Guardiola’s side have hit their purple patch and the win over Burnley means they are ahead of Arsenal on goals scored with both sides having played 33 games. Though Arsenal returned to the summit with victory over Newcastle, City will once again have a game in hand after this weekend.

Overall, City have a potentially far more difficult run-in than Arsenal, and a final-day game at home to Aston Villa could be a tough end to the season if everything isn’t already decided by then.

Final straight? On paper, much tougher than Arsenal’s. Brentford and Bournemouth are in the mix for European qualification over the final weeks of the season and City have to play them both in their final three games. Then, they host Aston Villa on the final weekend of the season. Unai Emery’s side could have Champions League qualification wrapped up by then, though, and there is a chance they could still be celebrating victory in the Europa League final if they advance past Nottingham Forest to get there.

Verdict?

Arsenal’s fixtures look more favourable than City’s, particularly in their final stretch, but the result at the Etihad means momentum has swung in City’s favour, and Pep Guardiola’s side look in ominous form. The Gunners have returned to the top of the table for now, but will they have enough to stay there in the next few weeks?

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