The Premier League’s chances of receiving a fifth Champions League spot next season have been reduced by almost 30 per cent, after Liverpool and West Ham United fell to defeat in their Europa League quarter-final first legs.
Liverpool surprisingly lost 3-0 at home to Atalanta, with West Ham suffering a 2-0 reverse at Bayer Leverkusen, and both results could yet prove critical in England’s bid to secure five places in the Champions League group stage next term.
The Champions League moves to a new format for the 2024/25 season, with 36 teams in the group stage rather than 32, and two of those extra places will go to the countries who have the best average performance across all three European competitions this season.
Prior to Thursday’s Europa League and Conference League quarter-final first legs, England was given an 84.4 per cent of taking one of those extra spots, according to computer simulations, because of results in Europe this term – Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham and Aston Villa have all reached the quarter-finals of their respective competitions.
Group stage exits for Manchester United and Newcastle United meant that they still trailed the rankings to Italy, who were given a 98.2 per cent chance of taking one of the extra Champions League spots. Germany were third, with just a 17 per cent chance, ahead of France (0.4 per cent).
Bayer Leverkusen’s win over West Ham was good for Germany and bad for England – the Premier League is now at major risk of losing both its Europa League teams at the quarter-final stage, while Manchester City, Arsenal and Aston Villa still have work to do in their continental second-legs, too.
England is now given a 57.8 per cent chance of receiving a fifth Champions League spot, with Germany up to 41.8 per cent and Italy well clear on 99.8 per cent.
The Champions League quarter-final second leg between Bayern Munich and Arsenal now looks particularly important, as does Manchester City’s tie with Real Madrid and Aston Villa’s second leg with Lille in the Conference League.
Aston Villa will be playing not only to reach the Conference League semis, furthering their chance of European glory this season, but also to help their own chances of reaching the Champions League next term.
They currently sit fifth in the Premier League, and are on course to be the team who would benefit if England received an extra Champions League spot next term.
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