The Premier League relegation battle is once again going down to the final day of the season.
The fight to avoid dropping into the second tier of English football has thrilled throughout the campaign. At one point, half of the division were under threat of suffering the ignominy of relegation.
With Southampton already down, there remains two places in the drop zone and three clubs could still fall through it on the final day of the campaign. Everton, Leicester City and Leeds are those still involved in the fight, with the latter two in the drop zone ahead of this weekend’s fixtures.
Take a look at the sides most likely to fall into the Championship once the season comes to a close according to Opta's data model:
Leeds United - 19th (97 per cent chance of relegation according to Opta)
After a miraculous final day escape last term under Jesse Marsch, Leeds need something similar to ensure they retain a spot in the Premier League for a fourth campaign. With just seven wins and 31 points to their name this term, their chances are looking slim.
The club’s owners have changed manager twice this term in an effort to keep the Yorkshire club, with Jesse Marsch, Javi Gracia and Sam Allardyce all being handed the reins. The latter has overseen three matches so far, taking just a solitary point.
Their malaise extends even further than that though. They have lost six out of their last eight Premier League matches, whilst they only have three wins in their last 24 league fixtures.
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One of their main problems this season has been their sheer inability to win matches after taking the lead. Leeds have dropped 25 points from winning positions this term - the worst record in the Premier League.
That happened once again in their most recent outing as Rodrigo scored the opener against West Ham only to then be on the end of a 3-1 defeat at the London Stadium.
Leeds need a lot to happen if they are to avoid relegation. First, they have to beat Tottenham at Elland Road, whilst hoping both Leicester and Everton fail to overcome West Ham and Bournemouth respectively. Even an Everton draw might not be enough for Leeds due to their inferior goal difference, so they really need the Toffees to lose.
Leicester - 18th (84 per cent chance of relegation according to Opta)
The Foxes’ campaign has been truly wretched and they could be set for their first return to the Championship in a decade. Leicester have lost an eye-watering 22 Premier League matches this term - only Southampton losing more.
Their main worry this season has been their defensive record. The East Midlands side have conceded 67 goals this term with just three sides in the Premier League shipping more.
Ahead of their 0-0 stalemate against Champions League bound Newcastle at St James’ Park on Monday evening, Leicester had not even managed to earn a clean sheet since before the World Cup as Brendan Rodgers and interim boss Dean Smith both oversaw dreadful defensive records.
The former Aston Villa head coach did appear to give the side fresh hope with victory over Wolves last month but the Foxes have since gone five matches without a win. Leicester have to end that run if the 2016 champions are to remain in the top flight.
The task ahead of them is clear. A win over West Ham would see them move out of the drop zone, regardless of what Leeds do, but they also need to hope that Everton fail to beat Bournemouth.
Should the Toffees draw and Leicester win then the latter would stay up due to their superior goal difference.
Everton - 17th (19 per cent chance of relegation according to Opta)
The side with the best chance of avoiding relegation, Everton still cannot afford to rest on their laurels. A win against Bournemouth would guarantee them extending their long and proud stay in the top flight.
A draw would potentially be enough for the Toffees but only if Leeds and Leicester fail to beat Spurs and West Ham on the final day. That would signal another dramatic escape from the drop at Goodison Park.
Frank Lampard helped Everton to stay in the Premier League last season but failed to get a tune out of his side this term. He was sacked back in January after just three wins during the first half of the campaign.
Former Burnley boss Sean Dyche was drafted in and he has managed to marginally improve their fortunes with crucial wins against Leeds, Arsenal and Brentford, whilst their 5-1 thumping of Brighton was one of the shocks of the season.
Their penultimate match of the campaign saw them scramble a point against Wolves courtesy of Yerry Mina’s stoppage time goal. That could yet prove to be crucial as it ensures that either Leicester or Leeds must win on the final day to catch them, with a draw previously being enough should Everton have fallen to defeat at Molineux.
