President Biden's decision to withdraw as Democratic nominee delivered a massive shake-up to his party and the media coverage of the election—but, for now at least, has done little to change Donald Trump’s electoral chances. The crypto-based prediction market Polymarket on Monday forecast a 65% chance of Trump winning the election, down just 1% prior to Biden stepping down. Mirroring this slight decline, the prediction market PredictIt, has lowered Trump’s odds from 64% as of Saturday, to 60% as of Monday morning.
Research suggests that prediction markets may be a “better forecaster” of political outcomes, on average, and studies have found that aggregators like SciCast and now Metaculus have been consistently accurate on policy questions. For instance, Polymarket priced in a 10% chance of Biden dropping out of the race, even before his infamous debate against Trump in late June.
