U.S. President Donald Trump's declaration that the ceasefire with Iran was "over" sent traders on prediction markets scrambling to revise their expectations for when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz might return to normal.
Kalshi, which defines "normal" traffic as a seven-day moving average of more than 60 transit calls based on IMF PortWatch data, has repeatedly pushed back that timeline since the conflict between the U.S. and Iran began.
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