The problem of traders turning a buck on inside information is as old as markets themselves. But in the past year, the scope of insider trading has grown to unprecedented levels thanks to new platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket that offer bets on everything from major world events to celebrity trifles.
In recent months, the rise of these prediction markets has also given rise to a series of high-profile controversies. One saw a Polymarket user wager $32,000 that President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela would soon be out of power—a bet placed only hours before U.S. Special Forces captured Maduro, earning the bettor a $400,000 payout. Similar well-timed wagers related to the current Middle East conflict led one publication this week to ask: “Are White House insiders making a killing on the Iran war?”
