Prediction markets let people wager on just about anything — from basketball games to elections. And among more jarring bets recently, the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran.
Shortly ahead of a fragile ceasefire agreement earlier this week, a new group of accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made highly specific, well-timed trades betting there'd be an announcement about a halt in fighting for April 7. Some quickly pocketed awards, which amounted to hundreds of thousands of dollars in profits combined. Others are still awaiting payouts as an end to the deadly conflict still seems uncertain.
