A small group of traders on Polymarket have earned substantial profits by wagering on the timing and outcomes of U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, sparking condemnation from U.S. Senators. The platform's activity on Middle East conflict markets in late February and early March 2026 has hit record trading volumes.
By the numbers, contracts tied to whether the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28 drew roughly $529 million in trading volume. Within that frenzy, a handful of accounts, many of them newly created and previously inactive, won big. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps SA flagged six wallets that netted about $1.2 million in combined profit by placing accurate bets just hours before the strikes began on February 28.
One account using the pseudonym "Magamyman" stood out for its precise timing and sizable returns. According to market surveillance data, the user earned roughly $553,000 by betting on the removal of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and prior to the strikes, correctly wagered on the date of the U.S. attack, unquestioningly profiting on both events. According to the Financial Times, user "Dicedicedice" made nearly $150,000 hours before the strikes.
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based platform that lets users buy and sell shares on the likelihood of future events, from elections to weather patterns and geopolitical developments. Each contract settles at $1 if the predicted outcome occurs, and $0 if it does not, with prices shifting as traders exchange shares.
Senators Chris Murphy and Mike Levin have publicly condemned the trading activity, calling for tighter regulation or outright bans on markets that allow participants to profit from violent events, especially where the platform's rules, structure, and enforcement are uncertain or uneven. These concerns extend to how such platforms might incentivize leaks or even the exploitation of privileged access to military operations planning.
Levin wrote on social media that "Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency, and oversight." He also pointed out that President Donald Trump's son, Donald Jr., "sits on Polymarket's advisory board and his firm invested double-digit millions into the platform last year," and that "The DOJ and CFTC both had active investigations into Polymarket that were dropped after Trump took office."
It appears that a Polymarket account called "Magamyman" made $515,000 in a single day betting on last night's U.S. strike on Iran, with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly.
— Mike Levin (@MikeLevin) March 1, 2026
When this person bought in, the market had this at a 17% probability. They… pic.twitter.com/giM7WfTjys
Unlike some regulated exchanges, Polymarket operates in a legal gray area. It has previously faced penalties from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating without registration, and its betting markets on politically sensitive subjects have drawn repeated scrutiny over ethical boundaries.
Critics at outlets like Barron's have pointed out that, unlike regulated firms that explicitly ban insider trading, Polymarket's decentralized design doesn't provide clear mechanisms for enforcement, leaving the market vulnerable to exploitation by sophisticated traders.
Six Democratic Senators sent a letter to the CFTC earlier this week, asking them "to categorically prohibit any contract that resolves upon or closely correlates to an individual's death."
Polymarket itself has defended its offerings, saying aggregated market prices can reflect broad information more efficiently than traditional forecasting tools. However, accuracy alone doesn't counter concerns over whether certain players are simply capitalizing on information before the public does.
