A small group of traders on Polymarket have earned substantial profits by wagering on the timing and outcomes of U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran, sparking condemnation from U.S. Senators. The platform's activity on Middle East conflict markets in late February and early March 2026 has hit record trading volumes.
By the numbers, contracts tied to whether the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28 drew roughly $529 million in trading volume. Within that frenzy, a handful of accounts, many of them newly created and previously inactive, won big. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps SA flagged six wallets that netted about $1.2 million in combined profit by placing accurate bets just hours before the strikes began on February 28.
