Five years is an eternity in the NFL. With the average playing career under that number, the majority of the league fully turns over in that span. Consider that a stray thought for July, but the reason I’m bringing this up now is because it’s been exactly five seasons since I asked my MMQB colleagues which teams they thought would win the next five Super Bowls. Which means it’s time for America’s true pastime: dragging people for things they said on the internet!
I asked the question in February 2019, shortly after the New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII. You may remember that as the season Patrick Mahomes won an MVP award as a first-year starter, and the conference title games were swung by Dee Ford being offsides and Nickell Robey-Coleman not getting flagged for pass interference against the New Orleans Saints.
At the time, my colleagues (and we’ve had plenty of roster turnover as well) were smart to say that the Kansas City Chiefs’ day was coming. Overwhelmingly. Eight out of 10 people picked them to win a title, and six people actually picked them to win two. It seems obvious in hindsight—especially because they won three—but projecting multiple championships for a QB who had played one season and a coach who had a reputation as a guy who couldn’t win the big game was pretty bold at the time, no matter how many people agreed. It’s really hard to win a Super Bowl, and who knows what can happen in five years. (Look no further than the fact that the players who joined Mahomes in SI design whiz Bryce Wood’s graphic accompanying the piece were Andrew Luck and Baker Mayfield.)
It's hard to look five years ahead, but the MMQB staff takes a shot at guessing the next five Super Bowl champions: https://t.co/OTtWymFMPZ pic.twitter.com/kYRy1gVjsw
— The MMQB (@theMMQB) February 8, 2019
But the Chiefs’ titles may not even be the most interesting ones in that span. The other Lombardi Trophies were scooped up by the Rams (who, again, were coming off a Super Bowl loss when we voted and were picked by three people on their ballots) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (who were not thought to be close—though they were picked on one lone ballot, sort of, by the incomparable Conor Orr, who predicted they would move to San Antonio and win a title as the S.A. Bucs). Instead, they stayed in Tampa, pilfered Tom Brady in free agency and won Super Bowl LV with him. Which outcome would have seemed less likely at the time?
Breaking the league down into specific five-year blocks in an effort to make sweeping generalizations can be a case of cherry-picking arbitrary endpoints. It’s hard to draw too many conclusions from one five-year stretch, even if it’s the most recent period for which we have data. But it’s interesting that both of those franchises, in back-to-back seasons, built up championship-caliber cores and then imported veteran QBs to put them over the top. Remember that Jared Goff, not Matthew Stafford, was the Rams’ QB in that Super Bowl LIII loss. On the night Los Angeles. won Super Bowl LVI, I wrote about Stafford (and Brady before him), giving “more hope to franchises that consider themselves ‘a quarterback away’—a phrase that once felt as empty as being just five numbers off from hitting the Powerball.”
So who will win the next five championships? Once again, there are many types of teams to consider. Some are ready-made contenders now. Some are in the coveted star-QB-on-a-rookie-contract window. Some might be in that window a few years from now, if they draft superstars in 2025 or ’26. And who knows what team is ready to prop open a window we don’t see coming.
Here’s what my colleagues said this time around. (Teams are not listed in chronological order.)
Mitch Goldich
Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, Eagles, Rams
I’ll go first. I’ll take the Chiefs [shocked face], but only one more time before Patrick Mahomes’s 34th birthday. Now let’s have a little more fun. Remember what I wrote about teams that are ready to win and merely need a veteran QB to put them over the top? I gave this a lot of thought, and I believe the team most likely to be the next version of the 2021 Rams might be … the Rams again! Weird things happen in the NFL, and the post–Matthew Stafford Rams would be a great landing spot for a veteran QB. Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa or Brock Purdy will have to find a new team if their current ones won’t pay top dollar. And even a Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow may have to switch teams for reasons we don’t yet see. Maybe one of their teams will need to rebuild. Maybe relationships will fray. Maybe a player will get hurt and an awesome young backup will step in and create a difficult decision. If one of those players must move on, the Rams could pounce. Those Sean McVay retirement stories have gone quiet. The Philadelphia Eagles are not a popular pick, but if we had asked this same panel 12 months ago, I think almost everyone would have picked them. In the Chiefs, Eagles, Rams and Baltimore Ravens, I’m betting on four stable organizations that have track records of success. The Houston Texans have not fit that description in recent years, but may have hit the QB jackpot with C.J. Stroud and have a good team around him.
Albert Breer
Chiefs (2), Bengals, 49ers, Chargers
I was afraid of going chalk here, so I wanted to go back and look at the past five years to try to inform where I’d go with my picks. And those five were, as Mitch laid out above, the Chiefs three times, the Rams and Buccaneers. The only pick in that group that wouldn’t have been considered chalk back in 2019 would’ve been Tampa, and probably because nobody could’ve forecast then that they’d end up with Tom Brady. So with that in mind, I figured I’d go chalk on four of the five and throw my curveball with the Los Angeles Chargers, just because I think Jim Harbaugh is going to find his way back to the NFL’s big stage, armed with one of the game’s most gifted quarterbacks in Justin Herbert. As for the other three, this would give the Chiefs five rings over Patrick Mahomes’s first 12 years as a pro, and I’d guess the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals will both get over the hump in the next few years. If you want me to put those in order, I’d go Niners, Chiefs, Bengals, Chargers, Chiefs.
Conor Orr
Lions, Chiefs, Bills, Chargers, Eagles
It wasn’t long ago that I took this exercise in a bit of a different direction and assumed that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be moved by some hedge fund to San Antonio and win a Super Bowl there. I’d like credit for that projection, but I’m not going to get greedy. I decided to take 2.0 more seriously and say that I’m betting on owners and coaches long term. I think there’s such a marked gap in the NFL right now between owners who actually care about winning and those who don’t. That’s why the Eagles and Detroit Lions are on my list, with the Lions, I think, taking home the Lombardi Trophy this season. The Eagles are funny because they’ve built two really, really good football teams over the past six years and went 1–1 in Super Bowls; potentially a lost fumble away from outdueling the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LVII. Why should we assume they won’t be able to figure this out again? The Chargers will have success with Jim Harbaugh, and the team will get a title during the Justin Herbert era, while the Buffalo Bills are on this list merely in an effort to endear myself to a fan base I truly love. Kidding. Kind of. I do think that the Bills are almost there, and whether it’s an eventual coaching shift, or some kind of seismic trade, or lucking into some generational draft pick, I believe they’ll get hoisted over the plateau and win the big one. I feel like the Chiefs don’t really need an explanation but if you require one, his name is Patrick Mahomes.
Gilberto Manzano
Chiefs, 49ers, Texans, Lions, Chargers
I kept reminding myself that Tom Brady once went 10 seasons without winning a Super Bowl, as a way to justify leaving the Chiefs off this list so I could include two surprise teams. But I couldn’t bet against Patrick Mahomes, even if Travis Kelce and Andy Reid retire in the near future. All three will be around for 2024 to give the Chiefs strong odds of completing the three-peat. As for another team that could possibly win in the short term, I decided between the 49ers, Ravens, Bills and Bengals. I went with the 49ers because they have the better roster and continue to find ways to make deep playoff runs. Eventually, they have to break through with this core group, right?
And I’m O.K. with shutting the window on Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow for the next five years because of what C.J. Stroud accomplished as a rookie last year with the Texans. Stroud will make the Texans perennial contenders, they have a rising coach in DeMeco Ryans and the front office has nailed the draft in recent seasons. I’m not sure whether Jared Goff will get the job done for the Lions, but I strongly believe the duo of coach Dan Campbell and GM Brad Holmes could quickly upgrade at QB if needed to deliver a Super Bowl in the next five years. But I don’t think it will come down to that for the loaded Lions.
Now for my surprise team. The Chargers have Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. Those two alone will turn the organization into a playoff team within two years, before forming into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Harbaugh will eventually build stout offensive and defensive lines and a productive running game to let Herbert shine in the postseason.
Matt Verderame
Chiefs (2), 49ers, Texans, Bills
Yes, I’m going with a Chiefs three-peat. It’s never happened (entirely) in the Super Bowl era, but this Chiefs team seems uniquely qualified to become the first. At this point, betting against Patrick Mahomes is a fool’s errand. You do it. Mahomes has won three Super Bowls and appeared in four over his first six season as a starter. And with history on the line, Mahomes will get it done again alongside a Hall of Fame coach, a Hall of Fame tight end and a top-five defense.
Beyond Kansas City, it feels like the right move to pick elite quarterbacks. Josh Allen is eventually going to get on the board. The Bills are in a bit of a soft reset this year, but they have Allen, a good culture and a roster that with a few more additions can win it all. In Houston, the Texans might have the best contract in football with C.J. Stroud on a rookie deal for the next four seasons. It seems like Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans will break through before it’s time to see an extension kick in. Finally, Kyle Shanahan is going to get there. With only another year or two before a litany of contracts come due, San Francisco will get through the glass ceiling it has been pushing against for the better part of a half-decade.
Oh, and Mahomes will win his fifth before the decade is out. Ho hum.
Greg Bishop
Lions (2), Chiefs, Ravens, Dolphins
Whew, buddy, this was hard. So many factors go into any one season. Yet so many of those factors are out of any one franchise’s control. But something struck me as I considered the future here. It’s something that I even asked various coaches and players in Detroit this offseason. Have we entered an era in which NFL dynasties return? Several answered yes. To that end, I like the Lions, what they’ve built and are building, as the next franchise to join these dynastic Chiefs.
I also don’t think Kansas City is done. When comparing Detroit to the two-time defending champs this coming season, I see a complete roster minus another talented wideout after Amon-Ra St. Brown. Maybe that’ll be Jameson Williams, as coaches there believe. Maybe it’ll be Donovan Peoples-Jones. Either way, the need for that player in Detroit pushed my logic toward Kansas City completing the three-peat. But I do like the Lions in future seasons. They have so many of the league’s top players who are under 25. They’re philosophically sound. There’s a lot to love about their coach and his general manager. I see the Lions, for those reasons, winning more than one Super Bowl in the next five years. And, yes, it was strange to type that. But here we are.
Additionally, I like the Ravens in the near term and have them breaking up two Lions wins. Lastly, anyone who doesn’t believe in the genius of Mike McDaniel is a fool. I love what he’s building, hence my selection of the Miami Dolphins as the last winner in this span. The hardest team to leave out here was San Francisco. But there’s little in the 49ers’ recent history to suggest they’ll win one. That’s harsh, but true. I see Philadelphia as on more of a downswing but always capable of a resurgence. I see the Dallas Cowboys as close to another reset. I see the Rams, Green Bay Packers, Chargers (for the quarterback alone), Pittsburgh Steelers (for the coach alone) and Indianapolis Colts (for the general manager) alone as franchises that could challenge for championships in the same window.
Michael Rosenberg
Chiefs, 49ers, Vikings, Chargers, Lions
Patrick Mahomes is so good that picking his team to win one Super Bowl in a five-year period feels insulting. It is not! Remember: For a nine-season stretch starting when he was 28, Tom Brady did not win a Super Bowl. Travis Kelce will turn 35 this season. Kansas City just traded its best cornerback, L’Jarius Sneed. Andy Reid is 66 and his most likely successor is ... Matt Nagy. Maybe Mahomes, the Michael Jordan of his sport, will also retire for a while so he can play minor league baseball. Who knows? The point is that stuff happens, even to the best franchises, and speaking of the best franchises: A lot can and will change in five years, but champions tend to have excellent head coaches, top-12 quarterbacks and organizational alignment. That describes the Lions, who signed extensions with young All-Pros Penei Sewell and Amon-Ra St. Brown this offseason, and seem certain to contend for titles in the next half-decade. It also describes the 49ers, who have played in two Super Bowls and four NFC championship games in the past five years.
As for my other two picks, the Chargers’ roster needs work but Jim Harbaugh will build a tough, resilient winner around Justin Herbert. I picked the Minnesota Vikings because I believe Kevin O’Connell will help J.J. McCarthy become the most valuable commodity in the sport: a star quarterback on a rookie contract. The toughest omissions for me were the Ravens and Texans, who also have the quarterback-coach-alignment trifecta. But only five teams can win championships in a five-year span ... unless the NFL goes to two Super Bowls per year. As I said: A lot can happen in five years!
John Pluym
Chiefs, Bengals, Lions, 49ers, Vikings
If Patrick Mahomes is the quarterback and Andy Reid is the coach, then the Chiefs will always have a chance to win the Super Bowl. There’s no doubt Mahomes will be around for the next five years, and if he’s playing, then Reid could coach until he’s 75. I don’t know whether Mahomes and Reid will make it to six Lombardi Trophies like Tom Brady and Bill Belichick did, but they have the best chance of getting there. And their biggest nemesis could be the Bengals. Joe Burrow knows what it takes to beat the Chiefs. But Cincinnati needs its quarterback to stay healthy in order to take down Mahomes and Reid. If he does, the Bengals will win their first title. I thought the Lions should have beaten the 49ers in the NFC championship last year. I think they’ll get it done this time around and prevent the Chiefs from their three-peat. And I think Kyle Shanahan will win at least one Super Bowl with the 49ers, and it should happen with Brock Purdy at quarterback. Finally, many of you probably know I’m a Vikings fan. I was born in Minnesota and I’ll die here in Minnesota, and hopefully the purple finally brings one home. I’m counting on J.J. McCarthy to get the job done because he’s won championships at every level.
That’s a lot of words about the teams we picked—12 in all, 37.5% of the league and at least one team from every division except the NFC South. Six of our 12 teams have never won the Super Bowl before, so our panel sees the window open for a possible run of franchises finally winning it for the first time. Of course, they can’t all win in the next five years, but our writers are daring to dream for a few of the league’s most tortured fan bases: the Bills and Vikings (both 0–4 in Super Bowls), Bengals (0–3), Chargers (0–1), Texans (zero appearances) and Lions (who famously haven’t won a conference championship since 1957, making them 0-for-58 in trying to reach the Super Bowl).
No surprise the blurbs focused heavily on quarterbacks, so in looking at the 20 teams that nobody picked, I’ll again start with the QBs.
The most glaring omission to me (and I’m partially responsible) is Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers, who got zero votes despite his breakout season as a first-year starter. Same for Trevor Lawrence, whose Jacksonville Jaguars may have gotten on the board had we done this exercise a year ago, when they looked to be trending up. Nobody knows how many more seasons Aaron Rodgers will play, but it looks like no one at the MMQB will be marking down the New York Jets as their predicted Super Bowl LIX champs. And there were no takers for the Cowboys or Cleveland Browns, a pair of playoff teams with uncertainty at the position in the short-term and/or medium-term future.
Finally, there’s a notable lack of interest in the rookie quarterbacks. Caleb Williams was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft, but none of my colleagues predicted the Chicago Bears would win a title in his first five seasons. Same goes for No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels’s Washington Commanders and No. 3 pick Drake Maye’s New England Patriots. A record six quarterbacks were picked in the top 12 this year, but J.J. McCarthy was the only one whose team got any love in this poll. Nobody took Bo Nix’s Denver Broncos or Michael Penix Jr.’s (or Kirk Cousins’s) Atlanta Falcons.
Of course, the only thing we know is that we don’t truly know how any of this will play out. The Chiefs’ dynasty feels like it’s been around forever, but five years ago Mahomes had exactly one playoff win. It's fun to think about how much could change in the league over the next five years, and I’ll set another calendar reminder to get back to you then.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Predicting Which NFL Teams Will Win the Next Five Super Bowls.
