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Bangkok Post
Bangkok Post
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Predicting what Israel will do next is easy

The two-day Israeli military incursion into the Palestinian city of Jenin in the northern West Bank (12 Palestinians killed, one Israeli dead) seems at first glance like just another example of "mowing the lawn". That's what the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) call these periodic futile raids they make to kill some Palestinian fighters.

They know perfectly well that the raids achieve nothing except to bring in more young recruits for the Palestinian resistance movement-of-the-month: Lion's Den, the Jenin Brigades or whatever's next. But they're IDF soldiers and they have to look like they're doing something about the "terrorist threat", so out come the lawnmowers.

The Jenin raid is not even a very big deal as these things go, although the air strikes were new. The first battle of Jenin, during the Second Intifada in 2002, was a much bigger affair (23 Israelis killed, 50 Palestinian dead). But there is a widespread suspicion that this particular battle is part of a much bigger plan.

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